
# !pip install pandas-datareader


# !pip install yfinance
# !pip install matplotlib
# !pip install seaborn


from IPython.display import Image
Image(filename='2021-03-05_17h03_49.png')


import yfinance as yf
tricker = "^DJI"
stockData = yf.Ticker(tricker)

# get stock info
print(stockData.info)

start ="2010-01-01"
end ="2020-12-31"
# get historical market data
hist = stockData.history(start=start, end=end)
hist.head()

# hist.info()

{'previousClose': 34133, 'regularMarketOpen': 34163.99, 'twoHundredDayAverage': 31063.926, 'trailingAnnualDividendYield': None, 'payoutRatio': None, 'volume24Hr': None, 'regularMarketDayHigh': 34331.2, 'navPrice': None, 'averageDailyVolume10Day': 340731428, 'totalAssets': None, 'regularMarketPreviousClose': 34133, 'fiftyDayAverage': 33503.164, 'trailingAnnualDividendRate': None, 'open': 34163.99, 'toCurrency': None, 'averageVolume10days': 340731428, 'expireDate': None, 'yield': None, 'algorithm': None, 'dividendRate': None, 'exDividendDate': None, 'beta': None, 'circulatingSupply': None, 'startDate': None, 'regularMarketDayLow': 34039.66, 'priceHint': 2, 'currency': 'USD', 'regularMarketVolume': 255811646, 'lastMarket': None, 'maxSupply': None, 'openInterest': None, 'marketCap': None, 'volumeAllCurrencies': None, 'strikePrice': None, 'averageVolume': 198001056, 'priceToSalesTrailing12Months': None, 'dayLow': 34039.66, 'ask': 34319.96, 'ytdReturn': None, 'askSize': 0, 'volume': 255811646, 'fiftyTwoWeekHigh': 34331.2, 'forwardPE': None, 'maxAge': 1, 'fromCurrency': None, 'fiveYearAvgDividendYield': None, 'fiftyTwoWeekLow': 22789.62, 'bid': 34114.48, 'tradeable': False, 'dividendYield': None, 'bidSize': 0, 'dayHigh': 34331.2, 'exchange': 'DJI', 'shortName': 'Dow Jones Industrial Average', 'exchangeTimezoneName': 'America/New_York', 'exchangeTimezoneShortName': 'EDT', 'isEsgPopulated': False, 'gmtOffSetMilliseconds': '-14400000', 'quoteType': 'INDEX', 'symbol': '^DJI', 'messageBoardId': 'finmb_INDEXDJI', 'market': 'us_market', 'regularMarketPrice': 34163.99, 'logo_url': ''}


# Save data 
data_df = yf.download(tricker, start=start, end=end)
data_df.to_csv(tricker+'.csv')

[*********************100%***********************]  1 of 1 completed


import yfinance as yf
import pandas as pd

df_trickers = pd.read_csv("StockIndexTrickers.csv")
# print(df_trickers.head())
# df_trickers.info()

start ="2009-12-25"
# start ="2010-01-01"
end ="2020-12-31"

stockDataList = []

trickers = df_trickers[df_trickers["FromYahoo"]==1][["Trickers","Stock Index"]]
# trickers
                                  
for index, row in trickers.iterrows():
    stockData = yf.Ticker(row["Trickers"])
    histData = stockData.history(start=start, end=end)
    dataFrame = pd.DataFrame(histData["Close"])
    dataFrame.columns =[stockData.info['shortName']]
    stockDataList.append(dataFrame)
    
stockThai = pd.read_csv("SET Index Historical Data.csv")
stockThai['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(stockThai['Date'])
stockThai = stockThai.set_index('Date')
df_stockThai = pd.DataFrame(stockThai['Close'].str.replace(',','').astype(float))
df_stockThai.columns =['SET']

stockVietnam = pd.read_csv("VN Historical Data.csv")
stockVietnam['Date'] = pd.to_datetime(stockVietnam['Date'])
stockVietnam = stockVietnam.set_index('Date')
df_stockVietnam = pd.DataFrame(stockVietnam['Close'].str.replace(',','').astype(float))
df_stockVietnam.columns =["VNI"]

df_allStocks = pd.merge(df_stockThai, df_stockVietnam, how= "outer",left_index=True, right_index=True)

for i in range(len(stockDataList)):
    df_allStocks = pd.merge(df_allStocks, stockDataList[i], how= "outer",left_index=True, right_index=True)
    
df_allStocks.info()
df_allStocks.plot()

<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
DatetimeIndex: 3531 entries, 2009-12-24 to 2020-12-31
Data columns (total 34 columns):
 #   Column                           Non-Null Count  Dtype  
---  ------                           --------------  -----  
 0   SET                              2684 non-null   float64
 1   VNI                              2745 non-null   float64
 2   STI Index                        2744 non-null   float64
 3   FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         2699 non-null   float64
 4   Composite Index                  2683 non-null   float64
 5   PSEi INDEX                       2676 non-null   float64
 6   HANG SENG INDEX                  2707 non-null   float64
 7   Shenzhen Component               2674 non-null   float64
 8   KOSPI Composite Index            2710 non-null   float64
 9   Nikkei 225                       2696 non-null   float64
 10  ALL ORDINARIES                   2780 non-null   float64
 11  S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS   2686 non-null   float64
 12  TSEC weighted index              2699 non-null   float64
 13  NIFTY 50                         2693 non-null   float64
 14  Dow Jones Industrial Average     2773 non-null   float64
 15  NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)              2773 non-null   float64
 16  Russell 2000                     2773 non-null   float64
 17  S&P/TSX Composite index          2763 non-null   float64
 18  NASDAQ Composite                 2773 non-null   float64
 19  FTSE 100                         2773 non-null   float64
 20  DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX            2788 non-null   float64
 21  CAC 40                           2814 non-null   float64
 22  ESTX 50 PR.EUR                   2759 non-null   float64
 23  BEL 20                           2813 non-null   float64
 24  MOEX Russia Index                1927 non-null   float64
 25  IBOVESPA                         2721 non-null   float64
 26  IPC MEXICO                       2757 non-null   float64
 27  S&P/CLX IPSA                     2353 non-null   float64
 28  MERVAL                           2669 non-null   float64
 29  TA-125                           2145 non-null   float64
 30  Top 40 USD Net TRI Index         817 non-null    float64
 31  Gold Jun 21                      2832 non-null   float64
 32  Crude Oil Jun 21                 2774 non-null   float64
 33  Bitcoin USD                      2297 non-null   float64
dtypes: float64(34)
memory usage: 965.5 KB

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='Date'>


# print(df_allStocks.isnull().sum())


df_allStocks = df_allStocks.ffill()


# df_allStocks.isnull().sum()


start2 ="2010-01-01"
end2 ="2020-12-31"
df_allStocks = df_allStocks.loc[start2:end2]

df_allStocks.head()


# Save data 
df_allStocks.to_csv('StocksData.csv')


#Get data from CSV
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import datetime

df = pd.read_csv('StocksData.csv')
#Convert column date to index
dti = pd.to_datetime(df['Date'])
df.index = dti
df.drop(['Date'],axis = 1,inplace = True)
df_stock = df.iloc[:,0:29]
df_stock.drop(columns = ['MOEX Russia Index'],inplace = True)
df_stock_asia = df.iloc[:,0:14]
df_stock_asean = df.iloc[:,0:7]
df_stock_europe = df.loc[:,['SET','FTSE 100','DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX','CAC 40','ESTX 50 PR.EUR','BEL 20','MOEX Russia Index','TA-125']]
df_stock_NA = df.loc[:,['SET','Dow Jones Industrial Average','NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)','Russell 2000','S&P/TSX Composite index','NASDAQ Composite','IPC MEXICO']]
df_commodity = df.loc[:,['SET','Gold Jun 21','Crude Oil May 21','Bitcoin USD']]

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\frame.py:4305: SettingWithCopyWarning: 
A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame

See the caveats in the documentation: https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#returning-a-view-versus-a-copy
  return super().drop(

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
KeyError                                  Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-9-04757ddd0938> in <module>
     15 df_stock_europe = df.loc[:,['SET','FTSE 100','DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX','CAC 40','ESTX 50 PR.EUR','BEL 20','MOEX Russia Index','TA-125']]
     16 df_stock_NA = df.loc[:,['SET','Dow Jones Industrial Average','NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)','Russell 2000','S&P/TSX Composite index','NASDAQ Composite','IPC MEXICO']]
---> 17 df_commodity = df.loc[:,['SET','Gold Jun 21','Crude Oil May 21','Bitcoin USD']]

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in __getitem__(self, key)
    887                     # AttributeError for IntervalTree get_value
    888                     return self.obj._get_value(*key, takeable=self._takeable)
--> 889             return self._getitem_tuple(key)
    890         else:
    891             # we by definition only have the 0th axis

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_tuple(self, tup)
   1067             return self._multi_take(tup)
   1068 
-> 1069         return self._getitem_tuple_same_dim(tup)
   1070 
   1071     def _get_label(self, label, axis: int):

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_tuple_same_dim(self, tup)
    773                 continue
    774 
--> 775             retval = getattr(retval, self.name)._getitem_axis(key, axis=i)
    776             # We should never have retval.ndim < self.ndim, as that should
    777             #  be handled by the _getitem_lowerdim call above.

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_axis(self, key, axis)
   1111                     raise ValueError("Cannot index with multidimensional key")
   1112 
-> 1113                 return self._getitem_iterable(key, axis=axis)
   1114 
   1115             # nested tuple slicing

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_iterable(self, key, axis)
   1051 
   1052         # A collection of keys
-> 1053         keyarr, indexer = self._get_listlike_indexer(key, axis, raise_missing=False)
   1054         return self.obj._reindex_with_indexers(
   1055             {axis: [keyarr, indexer]}, copy=True, allow_dups=True

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _get_listlike_indexer(self, key, axis, raise_missing)
   1264             keyarr, indexer, new_indexer = ax._reindex_non_unique(keyarr)
   1265 
-> 1266         self._validate_read_indexer(keyarr, indexer, axis, raise_missing=raise_missing)
   1267         return keyarr, indexer
   1268 

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _validate_read_indexer(self, key, indexer, axis, raise_missing)
   1319 
   1320             with option_context("display.max_seq_items", 10, "display.width", 80):
-> 1321                 raise KeyError(
   1322                     "Passing list-likes to .loc or [] with any missing labels "
   1323                     "is no longer supported. "

KeyError: "Passing list-likes to .loc or [] with any missing labels is no longer supported. The following labels were missing: Index(['Crude Oil May 21'], dtype='object'). See https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#deprecate-loc-reindex-listlike"


pd.set_option("display.max_rows", 999)
pd.set_option("display.max_columns", 999)
df_stock.describe()


#Correlation Table
pd.set_option("display.max_rows", 999)
pd.set_option("display.max_columns", 999)
df_stock.corr()


#Time Series Analysis
# Plot
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt 
fig, axes = plt.subplots(nrows=3, ncols=2, dpi=120, figsize=(10,8))
for i, ax in enumerate(axes.flatten()):
 data = df_stock[df_stock.columns[i]]
 ax.plot(data, color='red', linewidth=1)
 ax.set_title(df_stock.columns[i])
 ax.xaxis.set_ticks_position('none')
 ax.yaxis.set_ticks_position('none')
 ax.spines['top'].set_alpha(0)
 ax.tick_params(labelsize=6)
plt.tight_layout();


#Normal Test
from scipy import stats 
for i in df_stock:
    print(df_stock[i])
    stat,p = stats.normaltest(df_stock[i])
    print("Statistics = %.3f, p=%.3f" % (stat,p))
    alpha = 0.05
    if p> alpha:
        print('Data looks Gaussian (fail to reject null hypothesis)')
    else:
        print('Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)')

Date
2010-01-04     732.28
2010-01-05     732.11
2010-01-06     735.73
2010-01-07     734.63
2010-01-08     738.96
               ...   
2020-12-27    1486.31
2020-12-28    1452.67
2020-12-29    1461.95
2020-12-30    1449.35
2020-12-31    1449.35
Name: SET, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 327.845, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     517.05
2010-01-05     532.53
2010-01-06     534.46
2010-01-07     533.34
2010-01-08     520.90
               ...   
2020-12-27    1084.42
2020-12-28    1091.33
2020-12-29    1099.49
2020-12-30    1097.54
2020-12-31    1103.87
Name: VNI, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 1971.708, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    2894.550049
2010-01-05    2920.280029
2010-01-06    2930.489990
2010-01-07    2913.250000
2010-01-08    2922.760010
                 ...     
2020-12-27    2833.399902
2020-12-28    2840.139893
2020-12-29    2848.139893
2020-12-30    2869.219971
2020-12-31    2869.219971
Name: STI Index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 165.245, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    1275.750000
2010-01-05    1288.239990
2010-01-06    1293.170044
2010-01-07    1291.420044
2010-01-08    1292.979980
                 ...     
2020-12-27    1641.170044
2020-12-28    1643.900024
2020-12-29    1634.989990
2020-12-30    1644.410034
2020-12-31    1644.410034
Name: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 216.183, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    2575.312988
2010-01-05    2605.175537
2010-01-06    2603.195557
2010-01-07    2586.794189
2010-01-08    2614.268311
                 ...     
2020-12-27    6008.708984
2020-12-28    6093.554199
2020-12-29    6036.173828
2020-12-30    5979.073242
2020-12-31    5979.073242
Name: Composite Index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 145.662, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    3004.237549
2010-01-05    3027.681396
2010-01-06    3039.148438
2010-01-07    3076.988770
2010-01-08    3076.388916
                 ...     
2020-12-27    7204.379883
2020-12-28    7122.250000
2020-12-29    7139.709961
2020-12-30    7139.709961
2020-12-31    7139.709961
Name: PSEi INDEX, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 374.266, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    21823.279297
2010-01-05    22279.580078
2010-01-06    22416.669922
2010-01-07    22269.449219
2010-01-08    22296.750000
                  ...     
2020-12-27    26386.560547
2020-12-28    26314.630859
2020-12-29    26568.490234
2020-12-30    27147.109375
2020-12-31    27147.109375
Name: HANG SENG INDEX, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 142.878, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    13533.387695
2010-01-05    13517.228516
2010-01-06    13505.028320
2010-01-07    13235.332031
2010-01-08    13267.291992
                  ...     
2020-12-27    14017.059570
2020-12-28    14044.099609
2020-12-29    13970.209961
2020-12-30    14201.570312
2020-12-31    14201.570312
Name: Shenzhen Component, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 240.029, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    1696.140015
2010-01-05    1690.619995
2010-01-06    1705.319946
2010-01-07    1683.449951
2010-01-08    1695.260010
                 ...     
2020-12-27    2806.860107
2020-12-28    2808.600098
2020-12-29    2820.510010
2020-12-30    2873.469971
2020-12-31    2873.469971
Name: KOSPI Composite Index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 232.136, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    10654.790039
2010-01-05    10681.830078
2010-01-06    10731.450195
2010-01-07    10681.660156
2010-01-08    10798.320312
                  ...     
2020-12-27    26656.609375
2020-12-28    26854.029297
2020-12-29    27568.150391
2020-12-30    27444.169922
2020-12-31    27444.169922
Name: Nikkei 225, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 1477.934, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    4889.799805
2010-01-05    4939.500000
2010-01-06    4946.799805
2010-01-07    4930.500000
2010-01-08    4942.200195
                 ...     
2020-12-27    6917.500000
2020-12-28    6917.500000
2020-12-29    6962.100098
2020-12-30    6942.899902
2020-12-31    6942.899902
Name: ALL ORDINARIES, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 126.560, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     3230.149902
2010-01-05     3268.189941
2010-01-06     3271.570068
2010-01-07     3284.810059
2010-01-08     3310.229980
                  ...     
2020-12-27    13020.209961
2020-12-28    13020.209961
2020-12-29    13246.769531
2020-12-30    13217.139648
2020-12-31    13217.139648
Name: S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS , Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 606.674, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     8207.809570
2010-01-05     8211.360352
2010-01-06     8327.580078
2010-01-07     8237.379883
2010-01-08     8280.860352
                  ...     
2020-12-27    14331.419922
2020-12-28    14483.070312
2020-12-29    14472.049805
2020-12-30    14687.700195
2020-12-31    14687.700195
Name: TSEC weighted index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 202.919, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     5232.200195
2010-01-05     5277.899902
2010-01-06     5281.799805
2010-01-07     5263.100098
2010-01-08     5244.750000
                  ...     
2020-12-27    13749.250000
2020-12-28    13873.200195
2020-12-29    13932.599609
2020-12-30    13981.950195
2020-12-31    13981.950195
Name: NIFTY 50, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 2722.887, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    10583.959961
2010-01-05    10572.019531
2010-01-06    10573.679688
2010-01-07    10606.860352
2010-01-08    10618.190430
                  ...     
2020-12-27    30199.869141
2020-12-28    30403.970703
2020-12-29    30335.669922
2020-12-30    30409.560547
2020-12-31    30409.560547
Name: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 2424.900, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     7326.740234
2010-01-05     7354.870117
2010-01-06     7377.700195
2010-01-07     7393.930176
2010-01-08     7425.350098
                  ...     
2020-12-27    14382.500000
2020-12-28    14405.769531
2020-12-29    14397.919922
2020-12-30    14477.480469
2020-12-31    14477.480469
Name: NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ), Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 545.752, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     640.099976
2010-01-05     638.489990
2010-01-06     637.950012
2010-01-07     641.969971
2010-01-08     644.559998
                 ...     
2020-12-27    2003.949951
2020-12-28    1996.250000
2020-12-29    1959.359985
2020-12-30    1979.989990
2020-12-31    1979.989990
Name: Russell 2000, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 607.387, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    11866.900391
2010-01-05    11888.099609
2010-01-06    11944.500000
2010-01-07    11887.500000
2010-01-08    11953.799805
                  ...     
2020-12-27    17623.900391
2020-12-28    17623.900391
2020-12-29    17543.400391
2020-12-30    17545.800781
2020-12-31    17545.800781
Name: S&P/TSX Composite index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 1081.625, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     2308.419922
2010-01-05     2308.709961
2010-01-06     2301.090088
2010-01-07     2300.050049
2010-01-08     2317.169922
                  ...     
2020-12-27    12804.730469
2020-12-28    12899.419922
2020-12-29    12850.219727
2020-12-30    12870.000000
2020-12-31    12870.000000
Name: NASDAQ Composite, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 227.209, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    5500.299805
2010-01-05    5522.500000
2010-01-06    5530.000000
2010-01-07    5526.700195
2010-01-08    5534.200195
                 ...     
2020-12-27    6502.100098
2020-12-28    6502.100098
2020-12-29    6602.700195
2020-12-30    6555.799805
2020-12-31    6555.799805
Name: FTSE 100, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 834.565, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     6048.299805
2010-01-05     6031.859863
2010-01-06     6034.330078
2010-01-07     6019.359863
2010-01-08     6037.609863
                  ...     
2020-12-27    13587.230469
2020-12-28    13790.290039
2020-12-29    13761.379883
2020-12-30    13718.780273
2020-12-31    13718.780273
Name: DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 1286.115, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    4013.969971
2010-01-05    4012.909912
2010-01-06    4017.669922
2010-01-07    4024.800049
2010-01-08    4045.139893
                 ...     
2020-12-27    5522.009766
2020-12-28    5588.379883
2020-12-29    5611.790039
2020-12-30    5599.410156
2020-12-31    5599.410156
Name: CAC 40, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 347.044, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    3017.800049
2010-01-05    3012.360107
2010-01-06    3009.659912
2010-01-07    3007.340088
2010-01-08    3017.850098
                 ...     
2020-12-27    3539.260010
2020-12-28    3575.409912
2020-12-29    3581.370117
2020-12-30    3571.590088
2020-12-31    3571.590088
Name: ESTX 50 PR.EUR, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 178.963, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    2563.969971
2010-01-05    2587.770020
2010-01-06    2596.429932
2010-01-07    2590.679932
2010-01-08    2591.639893
                 ...     
2020-12-27    3659.159912
2020-12-28    3663.060059
2020-12-29    3671.110107
2020-12-30    3663.060059
2020-12-31    3663.060059
Name: BEL 20, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 766.074, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     70045.0
2010-01-05     70240.0
2010-01-06     70729.0
2010-01-07     70451.0
2010-01-08     70263.0
                ...   
2020-12-27    117857.0
2020-12-28    119051.0
2020-12-29    119475.0
2020-12-30    119306.0
2020-12-31    119306.0
Name: IBOVESPA, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 333.774, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    32758.529297
2010-01-05    32732.759766
2010-01-06    32830.160156
2010-01-07    33064.570312
2010-01-08    32892.039062
                  ...     
2020-12-27    43372.199219
2020-12-28    43883.410156
2020-12-29    44693.988281
2020-12-30    44693.960938
2020-12-31    44693.960938
Name: IPC MEXICO, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 152.794, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04    3620.699951
2010-01-05    3624.100098
2010-01-06    3639.959961
2010-01-07    3681.060059
2010-01-08    3726.500000
                 ...     
2020-12-27    5058.879883
2020-12-28    5058.879883
2020-12-29    5058.879883
2020-12-30    5058.879883
2020-12-31    5058.879883
Name: S&P/CLX IPSA, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 9015.287, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)
Date
2010-01-04     2384.489990
2010-01-05     2401.750000
2010-01-06     2362.459961
2010-01-07     2389.449951
2010-01-08     2352.760010
                  ...     
2020-12-27    51618.980469
2020-12-28    50483.839844
2020-12-29    51320.140625
2020-12-30    51226.488281
2020-12-31    51226.488281
Name: MERVAL, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
Statistics = 417.720, p=0.000
Data looks non-Gaussian (reject null hypothesis)


# !pip install statsmodels


#Auto-correlation (ACF)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import acf, pacf
for i in df_stock:
 sm.graphics.tsa.plot_acf(df_stock[i],lags = 50)
 plt.title('ACF for %s' %i)
 plt.show()


#Partial Auto-correlation (PACF)
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import acf, pacf
for i in df_stock:
 sm.graphics.tsa.plot_pacf(df_stock[i],lags = 50)
 plt.title('PACF for %s' %i)
 plt.show()


#Stationary Check
#Augmentated Dickey Fuller Test
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import adfuller
def augmented_dickey_fuller_statistics(time_series):
    result = adfuller(time_series.values)
    print('ADF Statistic: %f' % result[0])
    print('p-value: %f' % result[1])
    print('Critical Values:')
    for key, value in result[4].items():
        print('\t%s: %.3f' % (key, value))


#Split Training Data(70%)/Validation Data(30%)
n_obs = 2467 #For traning data 
X_train = df_stock[0:n_obs]
X_validation = df_stock[n_obs:]
print(X_train.shape,X_validation.shape)

(2467, 28) (1058, 28)


for i in df_stock:
    print(df_stock[i])
    augmented_dickey_fuller_statistics(df_stock[i])

Date
2010-01-04     732.28
2010-01-05     732.11
2010-01-06     735.73
2010-01-07     734.63
2010-01-08     738.96
               ...   
2020-12-27    1486.31
2020-12-28    1452.67
2020-12-29    1461.95
2020-12-30    1449.35
2020-12-31    1449.35
Name: SET, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.636441
p-value: 0.085697
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     517.05
2010-01-05     532.53
2010-01-06     534.46
2010-01-07     533.34
2010-01-08     520.90
               ...   
2020-12-27    1084.42
2020-12-28    1091.33
2020-12-29    1099.49
2020-12-30    1097.54
2020-12-31    1103.87
Name: VNI, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.400646
p-value: 0.909991
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2894.550049
2010-01-05    2920.280029
2010-01-06    2930.489990
2010-01-07    2913.250000
2010-01-08    2922.760010
                 ...     
2020-12-27    2833.399902
2020-12-28    2840.139893
2020-12-29    2848.139893
2020-12-30    2869.219971
2020-12-31    2869.219971
Name: STI Index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -3.098446
p-value: 0.026668
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    1275.750000
2010-01-05    1288.239990
2010-01-06    1293.170044
2010-01-07    1291.420044
2010-01-08    1292.979980
                 ...     
2020-12-27    1641.170044
2020-12-28    1643.900024
2020-12-29    1634.989990
2020-12-30    1644.410034
2020-12-31    1644.410034
Name: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.818629
p-value: 0.055662
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2575.312988
2010-01-05    2605.175537
2010-01-06    2603.195557
2010-01-07    2586.794189
2010-01-08    2614.268311
                 ...     
2020-12-27    6008.708984
2020-12-28    6093.554199
2020-12-29    6036.173828
2020-12-30    5979.073242
2020-12-31    5979.073242
Name: Composite Index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.290011
p-value: 0.175210
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3004.237549
2010-01-05    3027.681396
2010-01-06    3039.148438
2010-01-07    3076.988770
2010-01-08    3076.388916
                 ...     
2020-12-27    7204.379883
2020-12-28    7122.250000
2020-12-29    7139.709961
2020-12-30    7139.709961
2020-12-31    7139.709961
Name: PSEi INDEX, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.489856
p-value: 0.117962
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    21823.279297
2010-01-05    22279.580078
2010-01-06    22416.669922
2010-01-07    22269.449219
2010-01-08    22296.750000
                  ...     
2020-12-27    26386.560547
2020-12-28    26314.630859
2020-12-29    26568.490234
2020-12-30    27147.109375
2020-12-31    27147.109375
Name: HANG SENG INDEX, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.227299
p-value: 0.196487
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    13533.387695
2010-01-05    13517.228516
2010-01-06    13505.028320
2010-01-07    13235.332031
2010-01-08    13267.291992
                  ...     
2020-12-27    14017.059570
2020-12-28    14044.099609
2020-12-29    13970.209961
2020-12-30    14201.570312
2020-12-31    14201.570312
Name: Shenzhen Component, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.614902
p-value: 0.089956
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    1696.140015
2010-01-05    1690.619995
2010-01-06    1705.319946
2010-01-07    1683.449951
2010-01-08    1695.260010
                 ...     
2020-12-27    2806.860107
2020-12-28    2808.600098
2020-12-29    2820.510010
2020-12-30    2873.469971
2020-12-31    2873.469971
Name: KOSPI Composite Index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.654611
p-value: 0.454637
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    10654.790039
2010-01-05    10681.830078
2010-01-06    10731.450195
2010-01-07    10681.660156
2010-01-08    10798.320312
                  ...     
2020-12-27    26656.609375
2020-12-28    26854.029297
2020-12-29    27568.150391
2020-12-30    27444.169922
2020-12-31    27444.169922
Name: Nikkei 225, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.616362
p-value: 0.867242
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    4889.799805
2010-01-05    4939.500000
2010-01-06    4946.799805
2010-01-07    4930.500000
2010-01-08    4942.200195
                 ...     
2020-12-27    6917.500000
2020-12-28    6917.500000
2020-12-29    6962.100098
2020-12-30    6942.899902
2020-12-31    6942.899902
Name: ALL ORDINARIES, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.557438
p-value: 0.504931
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     3230.149902
2010-01-05     3268.189941
2010-01-06     3271.570068
2010-01-07     3284.810059
2010-01-08     3310.229980
                  ...     
2020-12-27    13020.209961
2020-12-28    13020.209961
2020-12-29    13246.769531
2020-12-30    13217.139648
2020-12-31    13217.139648
Name: S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS , Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 0.995453
p-value: 0.994218
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     8207.809570
2010-01-05     8211.360352
2010-01-06     8327.580078
2010-01-07     8237.379883
2010-01-08     8280.860352
                  ...     
2020-12-27    14331.419922
2020-12-28    14483.070312
2020-12-29    14472.049805
2020-12-30    14687.700195
2020-12-31    14687.700195
Name: TSEC weighted index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 0.404927
p-value: 0.981678
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     5232.200195
2010-01-05     5277.899902
2010-01-06     5281.799805
2010-01-07     5263.100098
2010-01-08     5244.750000
                  ...     
2020-12-27    13749.250000
2020-12-28    13873.200195
2020-12-29    13932.599609
2020-12-30    13981.950195
2020-12-31    13981.950195
Name: NIFTY 50, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.369051
p-value: 0.915139
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    10583.959961
2010-01-05    10572.019531
2010-01-06    10573.679688
2010-01-07    10606.860352
2010-01-08    10618.190430
                  ...     
2020-12-27    30199.869141
2020-12-28    30403.970703
2020-12-29    30335.669922
2020-12-30    30409.560547
2020-12-31    30409.560547
Name: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.487059
p-value: 0.894517
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     7326.740234
2010-01-05     7354.870117
2010-01-06     7377.700195
2010-01-07     7393.930176
2010-01-08     7425.350098
                  ...     
2020-12-27    14382.500000
2020-12-28    14405.769531
2020-12-29    14397.919922
2020-12-30    14477.480469
2020-12-31    14477.480469
Name: NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ), Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.347404
p-value: 0.607216
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     640.099976
2010-01-05     638.489990
2010-01-06     637.950012
2010-01-07     641.969971
2010-01-08     644.559998
                 ...     
2020-12-27    2003.949951
2020-12-28    1996.250000
2020-12-29    1959.359985
2020-12-30    1979.989990
2020-12-31    1979.989990
Name: Russell 2000, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.042687
p-value: 0.737379
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    11866.900391
2010-01-05    11888.099609
2010-01-06    11944.500000
2010-01-07    11887.500000
2010-01-08    11953.799805
                  ...     
2020-12-27    17623.900391
2020-12-28    17623.900391
2020-12-29    17543.400391
2020-12-30    17545.800781
2020-12-31    17545.800781
Name: S&P/TSX Composite index, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.051734
p-value: 0.264360
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     2308.419922
2010-01-05     2308.709961
2010-01-06     2301.090088
2010-01-07     2300.050049
2010-01-08     2317.169922
                  ...     
2020-12-27    12804.730469
2020-12-28    12899.419922
2020-12-29    12850.219727
2020-12-30    12870.000000
2020-12-31    12870.000000
Name: NASDAQ Composite, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 1.450082
p-value: 0.997330
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    5500.299805
2010-01-05    5522.500000
2010-01-06    5530.000000
2010-01-07    5526.700195
2010-01-08    5534.200195
                 ...     
2020-12-27    6502.100098
2020-12-28    6502.100098
2020-12-29    6602.700195
2020-12-30    6555.799805
2020-12-31    6555.799805
Name: FTSE 100, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.726760
p-value: 0.069521
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     6048.299805
2010-01-05     6031.859863
2010-01-06     6034.330078
2010-01-07     6019.359863
2010-01-08     6037.609863
                  ...     
2020-12-27    13587.230469
2020-12-28    13790.290039
2020-12-29    13761.379883
2020-12-30    13718.780273
2020-12-31    13718.780273
Name: DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.642977
p-value: 0.460706
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    4013.969971
2010-01-05    4012.909912
2010-01-06    4017.669922
2010-01-07    4024.800049
2010-01-08    4045.139893
                 ...     
2020-12-27    5522.009766
2020-12-28    5588.379883
2020-12-29    5611.790039
2020-12-30    5599.410156
2020-12-31    5599.410156
Name: CAC 40, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.811155
p-value: 0.374938
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3017.800049
2010-01-05    3012.360107
2010-01-06    3009.659912
2010-01-07    3007.340088
2010-01-08    3017.850098
                 ...     
2020-12-27    3539.260010
2020-12-28    3575.409912
2020-12-29    3581.370117
2020-12-30    3571.590088
2020-12-31    3571.590088
Name: ESTX 50 PR.EUR, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.466623
p-value: 0.123808
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2563.969971
2010-01-05    2587.770020
2010-01-06    2596.429932
2010-01-07    2590.679932
2010-01-08    2591.639893
                 ...     
2020-12-27    3659.159912
2020-12-28    3663.060059
2020-12-29    3671.110107
2020-12-30    3663.060059
2020-12-31    3663.060059
Name: BEL 20, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.949033
p-value: 0.309357
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     70045.0
2010-01-05     70240.0
2010-01-06     70729.0
2010-01-07     70451.0
2010-01-08     70263.0
                ...   
2020-12-27    117857.0
2020-12-28    119051.0
2020-12-29    119475.0
2020-12-30    119306.0
2020-12-31    119306.0
Name: IBOVESPA, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.718507
p-value: 0.841897
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    32758.529297
2010-01-05    32732.759766
2010-01-06    32830.160156
2010-01-07    33064.570312
2010-01-08    32892.039062
                  ...     
2020-12-27    43372.199219
2020-12-28    43883.410156
2020-12-29    44693.988281
2020-12-30    44693.960938
2020-12-31    44693.960938
Name: IPC MEXICO, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.558554
p-value: 0.101869
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3620.699951
2010-01-05    3624.100098
2010-01-06    3639.959961
2010-01-07    3681.060059
2010-01-08    3726.500000
                 ...     
2020-12-27    5058.879883
2020-12-28    5058.879883
2020-12-29    5058.879883
2020-12-30    5058.879883
2020-12-31    5058.879883
Name: S&P/CLX IPSA, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.668876
p-value: 0.447216
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     2384.489990
2010-01-05     2401.750000
2010-01-06     2362.459961
2010-01-07     2389.449951
2010-01-08     2352.760010
                  ...     
2020-12-27    51618.980469
2020-12-28    50483.839844
2020-12-29    51320.140625
2020-12-30    51226.488281
2020-12-31    51226.488281
Name: MERVAL, Length: 3525, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.182771
p-value: 0.940544
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.432
	5%: -2.862
	10%: -2.567


for i in X_train:
    print(X_train[i])
    augmented_dickey_fuller_statistics(X_train[i])

Date
2010-01-04     732.28
2010-01-05     732.11
2010-01-06     735.73
2010-01-07     734.63
2010-01-08     738.96
               ...   
2018-02-03    1827.35
2018-02-04    1827.35
2018-02-05    1810.32
2018-02-06    1788.43
2018-02-07    1785.44
Name: SET, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.742075
p-value: 0.409575
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     517.05
2010-01-05     532.53
2010-01-06     534.46
2010-01-07     533.34
2010-01-08     520.90
               ...   
2018-02-03    1105.04
2018-02-04    1105.04
2018-02-05    1048.71
2018-02-06    1011.60
2018-02-07    1040.55
Name: VNI, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 1.502880
p-value: 0.997535
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2894.550049
2010-01-05    2920.280029
2010-01-06    2930.489990
2010-01-07    2913.250000
2010-01-08    2922.760010
                 ...     
2018-02-03    3529.820068
2018-02-04    3529.820068
2018-02-05    3482.929932
2018-02-06    3406.379883
2018-02-07    3383.770020
Name: STI Index, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.470955
p-value: 0.122702
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    1275.750000
2010-01-05    1288.239990
2010-01-06    1293.170044
2010-01-07    1291.420044
2010-01-08    1292.979980
                 ...     
2018-02-03    1870.479980
2018-02-04    1870.479980
2018-02-05    1853.069946
2018-02-06    1812.449951
2018-02-07    1836.680054
Name: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.361854
p-value: 0.152793
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2575.312988
2010-01-05    2605.175537
2010-01-06    2603.195557
2010-01-07    2586.794189
2010-01-08    2614.268311
                 ...     
2018-02-03    6628.819824
2018-02-04    6628.819824
2018-02-05    6589.674805
2018-02-06    6478.542969
2018-02-07    6534.869141
Name: Composite Index, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.199667
p-value: 0.673739
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3004.237549
2010-01-05    3027.681396
2010-01-06    3039.148438
2010-01-07    3076.988770
2010-01-08    3076.388916
                 ...     
2018-02-03    8808.485352
2018-02-04    8808.485352
2018-02-05    8613.785156
2018-02-06    8548.221680
2018-02-07    8665.331055
Name: PSEi INDEX, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.494114
p-value: 0.536421
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    21823.279297
2010-01-05    22279.580078
2010-01-06    22416.669922
2010-01-07    22269.449219
2010-01-08    22296.750000
                  ...     
2018-02-03    32601.779297
2018-02-04    32601.779297
2018-02-05    32245.220703
2018-02-06    30595.419922
2018-02-07    30323.199219
Name: HANG SENG INDEX, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.211371
p-value: 0.668685
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    13533.387695
2010-01-05    13517.228516
2010-01-06    13505.028320
2010-01-07    13235.332031
2010-01-08    13267.291992
                  ...     
2018-02-03    10925.117188
2018-02-04    10925.117188
2018-02-05    10836.207031
2018-02-06    10377.569336
2018-02-07    10246.929688
Name: Shenzhen Component, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -2.756157
p-value: 0.064815
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    1696.140015
2010-01-05    1690.619995
2010-01-06    1705.319946
2010-01-07    1683.449951
2010-01-08    1695.260010
                 ...     
2018-02-03    2525.389893
2018-02-04    2525.389893
2018-02-05    2491.750000
2018-02-06    2453.310059
2018-02-07    2396.560059
Name: KOSPI Composite Index, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.875817
p-value: 0.343522
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    10654.790039
2010-01-05    10681.830078
2010-01-06    10731.450195
2010-01-07    10681.660156
2010-01-08    10798.320312
                  ...     
2018-02-03    23274.529297
2018-02-04    23274.529297
2018-02-05    22682.080078
2018-02-06    21610.240234
2018-02-07    21645.369141
Name: Nikkei 225, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.614099
p-value: 0.867764
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    4889.799805
2010-01-05    4939.500000
2010-01-06    4946.799805
2010-01-07    4930.500000
2010-01-08    4942.200195
                 ...     
2018-02-03    6229.799805
2018-02-04    6229.799805
2018-02-05    6128.399902
2018-02-06    5930.200195
2018-02-07    5981.500000
Name: ALL ORDINARIES, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.323413
p-value: 0.618394
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3230.149902
2010-01-05    3268.189941
2010-01-06    3271.570068
2010-01-07    3284.810059
2010-01-08    3310.229980
                 ...     
2018-02-03    8415.290039
2018-02-04    8415.290039
2018-02-05    8241.830078
2018-02-06    8241.830078
2018-02-07    8194.730469
Name: S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS , Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 0.573161
p-value: 0.986935
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     8207.809570
2010-01-05     8211.360352
2010-01-06     8327.580078
2010-01-07     8237.379883
2010-01-08     8280.860352
                  ...     
2018-02-03    11126.230469
2018-02-04    11126.230469
2018-02-05    10946.250000
2018-02-06    10404.000000
2018-02-07    10551.540039
Name: TSEC weighted index, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.352332
p-value: 0.604904
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     5232.200195
2010-01-05     5277.899902
2010-01-06     5281.799805
2010-01-07     5263.100098
2010-01-08     5244.750000
                  ...     
2018-02-03    10760.599609
2018-02-04    10760.599609
2018-02-05    10666.549805
2018-02-06    10498.250000
2018-02-07    10476.700195
Name: NIFTY 50, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.247273
p-value: 0.932647
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    10583.959961
2010-01-05    10572.019531
2010-01-06    10573.679688
2010-01-07    10606.860352
2010-01-08    10618.190430
                  ...     
2018-02-03    25520.960938
2018-02-04    25520.960938
2018-02-05    24345.750000
2018-02-06    24912.769531
2018-02-07    24893.349609
Name: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 0.346636
p-value: 0.979386
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     7326.740234
2010-01-05     7354.870117
2010-01-06     7377.700195
2010-01-07     7393.930176
2010-01-08     7425.350098
                  ...     
2018-02-03    13085.349609
2018-02-04    13085.349609
2018-02-05    12572.929688
2018-02-06    12745.450195
2018-02-07    12687.179688
Name: NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ), Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.899853
p-value: 0.788021
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     640.099976
2010-01-05     638.489990
2010-01-06     637.950012
2010-01-07     641.969971
2010-01-08     644.559998
                 ...     
2018-02-03    1547.270020
2018-02-04    1547.270020
2018-02-05    1491.089966
2018-02-06    1507.170044
2018-02-07    1507.969971
Name: Russell 2000, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.961591
p-value: 0.767014
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    11866.900391
2010-01-05    11888.099609
2010-01-06    11944.500000
2010-01-07    11887.500000
2010-01-08    11953.799805
                  ...     
2018-02-03    15606.000000
2018-02-04    15606.000000
2018-02-05    15334.799805
2018-02-06    15363.900391
2018-02-07    15330.599609
Name: S&P/TSX Composite index, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.705631
p-value: 0.428214
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2308.419922
2010-01-05    2308.709961
2010-01-06    2301.090088
2010-01-07    2300.050049
2010-01-08    2317.169922
                 ...     
2018-02-03    7240.950195
2018-02-04    7240.950195
2018-02-05    6967.529785
2018-02-06    7115.879883
2018-02-07    7051.979980
Name: NASDAQ Composite, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 0.280403
p-value: 0.976427
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    5500.299805
2010-01-05    5522.500000
2010-01-06    5530.000000
2010-01-07    5526.700195
2010-01-08    5534.200195
                 ...     
2018-02-03    7443.399902
2018-02-04    7443.399902
2018-02-05    7335.000000
2018-02-06    7141.399902
2018-02-07    7279.399902
Name: FTSE 100, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.852663
p-value: 0.354647
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     6048.299805
2010-01-05     6031.859863
2010-01-06     6034.330078
2010-01-07     6019.359863
2010-01-08     6037.609863
                  ...     
2018-02-03    12785.160156
2018-02-04    12785.160156
2018-02-05    12687.490234
2018-02-06    12392.660156
2018-02-07    12590.429688
Name: DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.022172
p-value: 0.745092
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    4013.969971
2010-01-05    4012.909912
2010-01-06    4017.669922
2010-01-07    4024.800049
2010-01-08    4045.139893
                 ...     
2018-02-03    5364.979980
2018-02-04    5364.979980
2018-02-05    5285.830078
2018-02-06    5161.810059
2018-02-07    5255.899902
Name: CAC 40, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.468372
p-value: 0.549095
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3017.800049
2010-01-05    3012.360107
2010-01-06    3009.659912
2010-01-07    3007.340088
2010-01-08    3017.850098
                 ...     
2018-02-03    3523.280029
2018-02-04    3523.280029
2018-02-05    3478.770020
2018-02-06    3394.919922
2018-02-07    3454.520020
Name: ESTX 50 PR.EUR, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.949237
p-value: 0.309265
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    2563.969971
2010-01-05    2587.770020
2010-01-06    2596.429932
2010-01-07    2590.679932
2010-01-08    2591.639893
                 ...     
2018-02-03    4053.590088
2018-02-04    4053.590088
2018-02-05    3997.590088
2018-02-06    3896.590088
2018-02-07    3991.899902
Name: BEL 20, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.754382
p-value: 0.832156
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    70045.0
2010-01-05    70240.0
2010-01-06    70729.0
2010-01-07    70451.0
2010-01-08    70263.0
               ...   
2018-02-03    84041.0
2018-02-04    84041.0
2018-02-05    81861.0
2018-02-06    83894.0
2018-02-07    82767.0
Name: IBOVESPA, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.378500
p-value: 0.592539
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    32758.529297
2010-01-05    32732.759766
2010-01-06    32830.160156
2010-01-07    33064.570312
2010-01-08    32892.039062
                  ...     
2018-02-03    50395.828125
2018-02-04    50395.828125
2018-02-05    50395.828125
2018-02-06    49304.941406
2018-02-07    48976.449219
Name: IPC MEXICO, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -1.757783
p-value: 0.401614
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04    3620.699951
2010-01-05    3624.100098
2010-01-06    3639.959961
2010-01-07    3681.060059
2010-01-08    3726.500000
                 ...     
2018-02-03    5825.990234
2018-02-04    5825.990234
2018-02-05    5731.470215
2018-02-06    5697.279785
2018-02-07    5750.609863
Name: S&P/CLX IPSA, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -0.806199
p-value: 0.817294
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-04     2384.489990
2010-01-05     2401.750000
2010-01-06     2362.459961
2010-01-07     2389.449951
2010-01-08     2352.760010
                  ...     
2018-02-03    32614.769531
2018-02-04    32614.769531
2018-02-05    31145.599609
2018-02-06    31624.179688
2018-02-07    31626.730469
Name: MERVAL, Length: 2467, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: 2.083956
p-value: 0.998773
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567


X_train.plot(legend = False)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='Date'>


#Transformation
X_transform_data = X_train.diff().dropna()
X_transform_data.head()
X_transform_data.describe()
X_transform_data.plot(legend = False)

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='Date'>


for i in X_transform_data:
    print(X_transform_data[i])
    augmented_dickey_fuller_statistics(X_transform_data[i])

Date
2010-01-05    -0.17
2010-01-06     3.62
2010-01-07    -1.10
2010-01-08     4.33
2010-01-11     7.99
              ...  
2018-02-03     0.00
2018-02-04     0.00
2018-02-05   -17.03
2018-02-06   -21.89
2018-02-07    -2.99
Name: SET, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -48.667511
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    15.48
2010-01-06     1.93
2010-01-07    -1.12
2010-01-08   -12.44
2010-01-11    -5.84
              ...  
2018-02-03     0.00
2018-02-04     0.00
2018-02-05   -56.33
2018-02-06   -37.11
2018-02-07    28.95
Name: VNI, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -15.892471
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    25.729980
2010-01-06    10.209961
2010-01-07   -17.239990
2010-01-08     9.510010
2010-01-11    10.770020
                ...    
2018-02-03     0.000000
2018-02-04     0.000000
2018-02-05   -46.890137
2018-02-06   -76.550049
2018-02-07   -22.609863
Name: STI Index, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -17.030421
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    12.489990
2010-01-06     4.930054
2010-01-07    -1.750000
2010-01-08     1.559937
2010-01-11     1.530029
                ...    
2018-02-03     0.000000
2018-02-04     0.000000
2018-02-05   -17.410034
2018-02-06   -40.619995
2018-02-07    24.230103
Name: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -46.095534
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     29.862549
2010-01-06     -1.979980
2010-01-07    -16.401367
2010-01-08     27.474121
2010-01-11     17.833252
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05    -39.145020
2018-02-06   -111.131836
2018-02-07     56.326172
Name: Composite Index, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -28.089630
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     23.443848
2010-01-06     11.467041
2010-01-07     37.840332
2010-01-08     -0.599854
2010-01-11     10.167480
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -194.700195
2018-02-06    -65.563477
2018-02-07    117.109375
Name: PSEi INDEX, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -14.325639
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     456.300781
2010-01-06     137.089844
2010-01-07    -147.220703
2010-01-08      27.300781
2010-01-11     114.769531
                 ...     
2018-02-03       0.000000
2018-02-04       0.000000
2018-02-05    -356.558594
2018-02-06   -1649.800781
2018-02-07    -272.220703
Name: HANG SENG INDEX, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -49.109578
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    -16.159180
2010-01-06    -12.200195
2010-01-07   -269.696289
2010-01-08     31.959961
2010-01-11   -106.349609
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05    -88.910156
2018-02-06   -458.637695
2018-02-07   -130.639648
Name: Shenzhen Component, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -10.979824
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    -5.520020
2010-01-06    14.699951
2010-01-07   -21.869995
2010-01-08    11.810059
2010-01-11    -1.140015
                ...    
2018-02-03     0.000000
2018-02-04     0.000000
2018-02-05   -33.639893
2018-02-06   -38.439941
2018-02-07   -56.750000
Name: KOSPI Composite Index, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -14.015275
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05      27.040039
2010-01-06      49.620117
2010-01-07     -49.790039
2010-01-08     116.660156
2010-01-11       0.000000
                 ...     
2018-02-03       0.000000
2018-02-04       0.000000
2018-02-05    -592.449219
2018-02-06   -1071.839844
2018-02-07      35.128906
Name: Nikkei 225, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -51.500856
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     49.700195
2010-01-06      7.299805
2010-01-07    -16.299805
2010-01-08     11.700195
2010-01-11     39.000000
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -101.399902
2018-02-06   -198.199707
2018-02-07     51.299805
Name: ALL ORDINARIES, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -23.726402
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     38.040039
2010-01-06      3.380127
2010-01-07     13.239990
2010-01-08     25.419922
2010-01-11     -6.479980
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -173.459961
2018-02-06      0.000000
2018-02-07    -47.099609
Name: S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS , Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -47.556017
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05      3.550781
2010-01-06    116.219727
2010-01-07    -90.200195
2010-01-08     43.480469
2010-01-11     42.919922
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -179.980469
2018-02-06   -542.250000
2018-02-07    147.540039
Name: TSEC weighted index, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -12.603639
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     45.699707
2010-01-06      3.899902
2010-01-07    -18.699707
2010-01-08    -18.350098
2010-01-11      4.649902
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05    -94.049805
2018-02-06   -168.299805
2018-02-07    -21.549805
Name: NIFTY 50, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -47.674469
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     -11.940430
2010-01-06       1.660156
2010-01-07      33.180664
2010-01-08      11.330078
2010-01-11      45.799805
                 ...     
2018-02-03       0.000000
2018-02-04       0.000000
2018-02-05   -1175.210938
2018-02-06     567.019531
2018-02-07     -19.419922
Name: Dow Jones Industrial Average, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -52.382595
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     28.129883
2010-01-06     22.830078
2010-01-07     16.229980
2010-01-08     31.419922
2010-01-11     23.699707
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -512.419922
2018-02-06    172.520508
2018-02-07    -58.270508
Name: NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ), Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -51.606282
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    -1.609985
2010-01-06    -0.539978
2010-01-07     4.019958
2010-01-08     2.590027
2010-01-11    -0.570007
                ...    
2018-02-03     0.000000
2018-02-04     0.000000
2018-02-05   -56.180054
2018-02-06    16.080078
2018-02-07     0.799927
Name: Russell 2000, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -35.055026
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     21.199219
2010-01-06     56.400391
2010-01-07    -57.000000
2010-01-08     66.299805
2010-01-11     -6.700195
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -271.200195
2018-02-06     29.100586
2018-02-07    -33.300781
Name: S&P/TSX Composite index, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -17.617490
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05      0.290039
2010-01-06     -7.619873
2010-01-07     -1.040039
2010-01-08     17.119873
2010-01-11     -4.760010
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -273.420410
2018-02-06    148.350098
2018-02-07    -63.899902
Name: NASDAQ Composite, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -51.960518
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     22.200195
2010-01-06      7.500000
2010-01-07     -3.299805
2010-01-08      7.500000
2010-01-11      3.899902
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05   -108.399902
2018-02-06   -193.600098
2018-02-07    138.000000
Name: FTSE 100, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -26.238078
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    -16.439941
2010-01-06      2.470215
2010-01-07    -14.970215
2010-01-08     18.250000
2010-01-11      2.890137
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05    -97.669922
2018-02-06   -294.830078
2018-02-07    197.769531
Name: DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -49.606910
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     -1.060059
2010-01-06      4.760010
2010-01-07      7.130127
2010-01-08     20.339844
2010-01-11     -2.049805
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05    -79.149902
2018-02-06   -124.020020
2018-02-07     94.089844
Name: CAC 40, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -26.570158
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05    -5.439941
2010-01-06    -2.700195
2010-01-07    -2.319824
2010-01-08    10.510010
2010-01-11    -7.610107
                ...    
2018-02-03     0.000000
2018-02-04     0.000000
2018-02-05   -44.510010
2018-02-06   -83.850098
2018-02-07    59.600098
Name: ESTX 50 PR.EUR, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -26.346978
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     23.800049
2010-01-06      8.659912
2010-01-07     -5.750000
2010-01-08      0.959961
2010-01-11     -5.779785
                 ...    
2018-02-03      0.000000
2018-02-04      0.000000
2018-02-05    -56.000000
2018-02-06   -101.000000
2018-02-07     95.309814
Name: BEL 20, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -26.747530
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     195.0
2010-01-06     489.0
2010-01-07    -278.0
2010-01-08    -188.0
2010-01-11     170.0
               ...  
2018-02-03       0.0
2018-02-04       0.0
2018-02-05   -2180.0
2018-02-06    2033.0
2018-02-07   -1127.0
Name: IBOVESPA, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -50.627096
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     -25.769531
2010-01-06      97.400391
2010-01-07     234.410156
2010-01-08    -172.531250
2010-01-11      43.339844
                 ...     
2018-02-03       0.000000
2018-02-04       0.000000
2018-02-05       0.000000
2018-02-06   -1090.886719
2018-02-07    -328.492188
Name: IPC MEXICO, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -19.639372
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05     3.400146
2010-01-06    15.859863
2010-01-07    41.100098
2010-01-08    45.439941
2010-01-11    17.669922
                ...    
2018-02-03     0.000000
2018-02-04     0.000000
2018-02-05   -94.520020
2018-02-06   -34.190430
2018-02-07    53.330078
Name: S&P/CLX IPSA, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -9.775807
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567
Date
2010-01-05      17.260010
2010-01-06     -39.290039
2010-01-07      26.989990
2010-01-08     -36.689941
2010-01-11     -35.020020
                 ...     
2018-02-03       0.000000
2018-02-04       0.000000
2018-02-05   -1469.169922
2018-02-06     478.580078
2018-02-07       2.550781
Name: MERVAL, Length: 2466, dtype: float64
ADF Statistic: -21.452364
p-value: 0.000000
Critical Values:
	1%: -3.433
	5%: -2.863
	10%: -2.567


#Granger's Causality Test
from statsmodels.tsa.stattools import grangercausalitytests
maxlag=12

test = 'ssr-chi2test'

def grangers_causality_matrix(data, variables, test = 'ssr_chi2test', verbose=False):

    dataset = pd.DataFrame(np.zeros((len(variables), len(variables))), columns=variables, index=variables)

    for c in dataset.columns:
        for r in dataset.index:
            test_result = grangercausalitytests(data[[r,c]], maxlag=maxlag, verbose=False)
            p_values = [round(test_result[i+1][0][test][1],4) for i in range(maxlag)]
            if verbose: print(f'Y = {r}, X = {c}, P Values = {p_values}')

            min_p_value = np.min(p_values)
            dataset.loc[r,c] = min_p_value

    dataset.columns = [var + '_x' for var in variables]

    dataset.index = [var + '_y' for var in variables]

    return dataset

grangers_causality_matrix(X_transform_data, variables = X_transform_data.columns)


#VAR MODEL (Run All Markets)
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import statsmodels.api as sm
from statsmodels.tsa.api import VAR

#Lag Order Selection
model_world = VAR(endog = X_transform_data)
res_world = model_world.select_order(30)
print(res_world.summary())

#Model
mod_world = VAR(X_transform_data)
res_world = mod_world.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_world.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

 VAR Order Selection (* highlights the minimums)  
==================================================
       AIC         BIC         FPE         HQIC   
--------------------------------------------------
0        198.7      198.8*   2.034e+86       198.8
1       198.0*       200.0  1.007e+86*      198.7*
2        198.2       202.0   1.236e+86       199.6
3        198.4       204.1   1.526e+86       200.5
4        198.7       206.3   2.031e+86       201.5
5        199.0       208.4   2.637e+86       202.4
6        199.2       210.5   3.372e+86       203.3
7        199.4       212.5   3.964e+86       204.2
8        199.6       214.6   5.025e+86       205.1
9        199.9       216.8   6.746e+86       206.0
10       200.2       218.9   9.039e+86       207.0
11       200.5       221.1   1.239e+87       208.0
12       200.7       223.2   1.563e+87       208.9
13       200.9       225.3   1.962e+87       209.8
14       201.1       227.3   2.460e+87       210.7
15       201.4       229.4   3.132e+87       211.6
16       201.6       231.6   4.167e+87       212.5
17       201.9       233.7   5.424e+87       213.4
18       202.1       235.7   6.910e+87       214.3
19       202.3       237.8   8.795e+87       215.2
20       202.5       239.9   1.134e+88       216.1
21       202.7       241.9   1.382e+88       216.9
22       202.8       244.0   1.709e+88       217.8
23       203.1       246.0   2.208e+88       218.7
24       203.3       248.1   2.875e+88       219.6
25       203.5       250.2   3.936e+88       220.5
26       203.8       252.3   5.252e+88       221.4
27       203.9       254.3   6.394e+88       222.2
28       204.0       256.3   7.552e+88       223.0
29       204.2       258.3   9.655e+88       223.8
30       204.3       260.3   1.213e+89       224.7
--------------------------------------------------

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:30:09
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         28.0000    BIC:                    199.932
Nobs:                     2465.00    HQIC:                   198.713
Log likelihood:          -341180.    FPE:                9.95794e+85
AIC:                      198.018    Det(Omega_mle):     7.17700e+85
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.325084         0.216819            1.499           0.134
L1.SET                                    -0.026980         0.023609           -1.143           0.253
L1.VNI                                     0.089497         0.040882            2.189           0.029
L1.STI Index                              -0.008957         0.015349           -0.584           0.560
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.028740         0.033721           -0.852           0.394
L1.Composite Index                         0.020161         0.006922            2.912           0.004
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.001030         0.004571           -0.225           0.822
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.000985         0.001554           -0.634           0.526
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.004608         0.001468           -3.139           0.002
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.017376         0.019116            0.909           0.363
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.004267         0.001534           -2.781           0.005
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.001052         0.007977           -0.132           0.895
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.004607         0.009530            0.483           0.629
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.006149         0.004533           -1.357           0.175
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.001287         0.004510            0.285           0.775
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.008481         0.006360           -1.334           0.182
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.042808         0.013060            3.278           0.001
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.101860         0.052780           -1.930           0.054
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.008952         0.003985            2.247           0.025
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.015491         0.015221            1.018           0.309
L1.FTSE 100                                0.004738         0.008523            0.556           0.578
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.000596         0.006184            0.096           0.923
L1.CAC 40                                  0.018712         0.020266            0.923           0.356
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.034103         0.026029           -1.310           0.190
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.031976         0.020137           -1.588           0.112
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.001065         0.000396            2.689           0.007
L1.IPC MEXICO                             -0.000411         0.000910           -0.452           0.651
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.023625         0.008091            2.920           0.004
L1.MERVAL                                  0.001136         0.001325            0.858           0.391
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation VNI
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.142126         0.108811            1.306           0.191
L1.SET                                     0.002813         0.011848            0.237           0.812
L1.VNI                                     0.051493         0.020517            2.510           0.012
L1.STI Index                               0.015226         0.007703            1.977           0.048
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI                0.019744         0.016923            1.167           0.243
L1.Composite Index                        -0.005391         0.003474           -1.552           0.121
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.004779         0.002294            2.083           0.037
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.000941         0.000780           -1.207           0.228
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.000002         0.000737           -0.002           0.998
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.010798         0.009593            1.126           0.260
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.000265         0.000770           -0.344           0.731
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.003253         0.004003           -0.812           0.417
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.000076         0.004783           -0.016           0.987
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.000230         0.002275            0.101           0.919
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.000738         0.002263           -0.326           0.744
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.003906         0.003192            1.224           0.221
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.003113         0.006554            0.475           0.635
L1.Russell 2000                            0.014048         0.026488            0.530           0.596
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                -0.002022         0.002000           -1.011           0.312
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.008807         0.007639            1.153           0.249
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.003930         0.004277           -0.919           0.358
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.007127         0.003104           -2.296           0.022
L1.CAC 40                                  0.004498         0.010170            0.442           0.658
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                          0.014999         0.013063            1.148           0.251
L1.BEL 20                                  0.003597         0.010106            0.356           0.722
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.000287         0.000199            1.446           0.148
L1.IPC MEXICO                             -0.000545         0.000457           -1.193           0.233
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.002997         0.004061           -0.738           0.460
L1.MERVAL                                  0.001455         0.000665            2.188           0.029
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation STI Index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                     -0.131943         0.398885           -0.331           0.741
L1.SET                                     0.024455         0.043435            0.563           0.573
L1.VNI                                     0.013531         0.075212            0.180           0.857
L1.STI Index                              -0.076860         0.028238           -2.722           0.006
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.121521         0.062036           -1.959           0.050
L1.Composite Index                         0.004704         0.012735            0.369           0.712
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.005930         0.008410            0.705           0.481
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.003513         0.002859            1.229           0.219
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.011033         0.002700           -4.086           0.000
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.017636         0.035168            0.501           0.616
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.003232         0.002823           -1.145           0.252
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.014528         0.014676           -0.990           0.322
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.041522         0.017532            2.368           0.018
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.010129         0.008340           -1.215           0.225
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.003364         0.008297           -0.405           0.685
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.010320         0.011701           -0.882           0.378
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.089689         0.024027            3.733           0.000
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.053060         0.097100           -0.546           0.585
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.003035         0.007330            0.414           0.679
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.025262         0.028002            0.902           0.367
L1.FTSE 100                                0.042784         0.015680            2.729           0.006
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.013405         0.011378            1.178           0.239
L1.CAC 40                                  0.040748         0.037283            1.093           0.274
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.075668         0.047886           -1.580           0.114
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.088758         0.037047           -2.396           0.017
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002131         0.000728            2.926           0.003
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.002068         0.001675            1.235           0.217
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.027099         0.014886            1.820           0.069
L1.MERVAL                                  0.000463         0.002438            0.190           0.849
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.109453         0.153229            0.714           0.475
L1.SET                                     0.012108         0.016685            0.726           0.468
L1.VNI                                    -0.012015         0.028892           -0.416           0.678
L1.STI Index                              -0.003672         0.010848           -0.339           0.735
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI                0.007288         0.023831            0.306           0.760
L1.Composite Index                         0.005583         0.004892            1.141           0.254
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.000793         0.003231           -0.245           0.806
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.001523         0.001098           -1.387           0.166
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.003009         0.001037           -2.901           0.004
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.037472         0.013510            2.774           0.006
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.003367         0.001084           -3.105           0.002
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.003273         0.005638           -0.581           0.562
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.007523         0.006735            1.117           0.264
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.002502         0.003204           -0.781           0.435
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.001584         0.003187           -0.497           0.619
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.009854         0.004495            2.192           0.028
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.003195         0.009230            0.346           0.729
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.002795         0.037300           -0.075           0.940
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.009914         0.002816            3.521           0.000
L1.NASDAQ Composite                       -0.006060         0.010757           -0.563           0.573
L1.FTSE 100                                0.007854         0.006023            1.304           0.192
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.003550         0.004371           -0.812           0.417
L1.CAC 40                                  0.023041         0.014322            1.609           0.108
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.024983         0.018395           -1.358           0.174
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.004974         0.014231           -0.350           0.727
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.000926         0.000280            3.309           0.001
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.002509         0.000643            3.900           0.000
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.009682         0.005718            1.693           0.090
L1.MERVAL                                  0.000255         0.000936            0.272           0.785
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Composite Index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.249605         0.773595            1.615           0.106
L1.SET                                     0.078558         0.084237            0.933           0.351
L1.VNI                                    -0.228949         0.145865           -1.570           0.117
L1.STI Index                              -0.035565         0.054765           -0.649           0.516
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.181581         0.120313           -1.509           0.131
L1.Composite Index                         0.017567         0.024698            0.711           0.477
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.007757         0.016310           -0.476           0.634
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.010512         0.005546           -1.896           0.058
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.011975         0.005237           -2.287           0.022
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.075166         0.068204            1.102           0.270
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.020293         0.005474           -3.707           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.002228         0.028462           -0.078           0.938
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.026759         0.034002            0.787           0.431
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.006239         0.016174           -0.386           0.700
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.009467         0.016091            0.588           0.556
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.025907         0.022693           -1.142           0.254
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.203460         0.046598            4.366           0.000
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.619563         0.188315           -3.290           0.001
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.039629         0.014217            2.788           0.005
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.064047         0.054307            1.179           0.238
L1.FTSE 100                                0.009923         0.030409            0.326           0.744
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.040788         0.022066            1.848           0.065
L1.CAC 40                                  0.076072         0.072307            1.052           0.293
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.208160         0.092870           -2.241           0.025
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.099593         0.071849           -1.386           0.166
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002195         0.001412            1.554           0.120
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.009264         0.003248            2.852           0.004
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.059957         0.028869            2.077           0.038
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.002676         0.004728           -0.566           0.571
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation PSEi INDEX
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.660277         1.074354            1.545           0.122
L1.SET                                     0.401702         0.116987            3.434           0.001
L1.VNI                                    -0.176013         0.202574           -0.869           0.385
L1.STI Index                               0.145375         0.076057            1.911           0.056
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.218150         0.167088           -1.306           0.192
L1.Composite Index                         0.063653         0.034300            1.856           0.063
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.013725         0.022651           -0.606           0.545
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.007082         0.007702           -0.920           0.358
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.016692         0.007273           -2.295           0.022
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.137525         0.094721            1.452           0.147
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.034140         0.007602           -4.491           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.025065         0.039527            0.634           0.526
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.078448         0.047222           -1.661           0.097
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.018725         0.022462           -0.834           0.404
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.029547         0.022347            1.322           0.186
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.035347         0.031515           -1.122           0.262
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.174618         0.064714            2.698           0.007
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.231102         0.261529           -0.884           0.377
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                -0.001689         0.019744           -0.086           0.932
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.132043         0.075421            1.751           0.080
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.014472         0.042232           -0.343           0.732
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.005351         0.030644           -0.175           0.861
L1.CAC 40                                 -0.033335         0.100418           -0.332           0.740
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.023615         0.128976           -0.183           0.855
L1.BEL 20                                  0.188534         0.099782            1.889           0.059
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.003279         0.001962            1.672           0.095
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.014769         0.004511            3.274           0.001
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.070722         0.040093            1.764           0.078
L1.MERVAL                                  0.005433         0.006566            0.827           0.408
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation HANG SENG INDEX
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.559220         4.143675            0.135           0.893
L1.SET                                     0.280210         0.451206            0.621           0.535
L1.VNI                                     2.287671         0.781308            2.928           0.003
L1.STI Index                               0.123331         0.293343            0.420           0.674
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -1.008531         0.644442           -1.565           0.118
L1.Composite Index                        -0.151734         0.132294           -1.147           0.251
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.071815         0.087362            0.822           0.411
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.082604         0.029704           -2.781           0.005
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.076675         0.028051           -2.733           0.006
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.040954         0.365328           -0.112           0.911
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.030098         0.029321           -1.026           0.305
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.074123         0.152452           -0.486           0.627
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.133017         0.182129            0.730           0.465
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.161226         0.086634           -1.861           0.063
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.035808         0.086188            0.415           0.678
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.232424         0.121551           -1.912           0.056
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     1.030503         0.249595            4.129           0.000
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.771660         1.008689           -0.765           0.444
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.108910         0.076149            1.430           0.153
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.541453         0.290890            1.861           0.063
L1.FTSE 100                                0.387917         0.162884            2.382           0.017
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.106705         0.118192            0.903           0.367
L1.CAC 40                                  0.459679         0.387302            1.187           0.235
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.921905         0.497449           -1.853           0.064
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.337220         0.384850           -0.876           0.381
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.035008         0.007566            4.627           0.000
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.000150         0.017398            0.009           0.993
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.448673         0.154633            2.902           0.004
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.024012         0.025325           -0.948           0.343
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Shenzhen Component
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                     -1.634163         3.323838           -0.492           0.623
L1.SET                                    -0.219436         0.361933           -0.606           0.544
L1.VNI                                     1.002901         0.626724            1.600           0.110
L1.STI Index                               0.233650         0.235305            0.993           0.321
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI                0.455914         0.516937            0.882           0.378
L1.Composite Index                        -0.110054         0.106119           -1.037           0.300
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.068668         0.070077            0.980           0.327
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.001459         0.023827            0.061           0.951
L1.Shenzhen Component                      0.009172         0.022501            0.408           0.684
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.006486         0.293047           -0.022           0.982
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.030592         0.023520            1.301           0.193
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.260920         0.122289           -2.134           0.033
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.064392         0.146094           -0.441           0.659
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.103204         0.069493           -1.485           0.138
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.071755         0.069136           -1.038           0.299
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.059490         0.097502           -0.610           0.542
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.237243         0.200212            1.185           0.236
L1.Russell 2000                            0.045571         0.809117            0.056           0.955
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.065557         0.061083            1.073           0.283
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.100202         0.233337            0.429           0.668
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.062794         0.130657           -0.481           0.631
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.046112         0.094807            0.486           0.627
L1.CAC 40                                  0.036977         0.310673            0.119           0.905
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.327062         0.399027           -0.820           0.412
L1.BEL 20                                  0.466947         0.308707            1.513           0.130
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.010998         0.006069            1.812           0.070
L1.IPC MEXICO                             -0.017563         0.013956           -1.258           0.208
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.229782         0.124039            1.852           0.064
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.040714         0.020314           -2.004           0.045
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation KOSPI Composite Index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.118762         0.302505            0.393           0.695
L1.SET                                     0.042428         0.032940            1.288           0.198
L1.VNI                                     0.105486         0.057039            1.849           0.064
L1.STI Index                              -0.019530         0.021415           -0.912           0.362
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.106694         0.047047           -2.268           0.023
L1.Composite Index                         0.002579         0.009658            0.267           0.789
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.000450         0.006378           -0.071           0.944
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.002809         0.002169            1.295           0.195
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.008960         0.002048           -4.376           0.000
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.108534         0.026670           -4.069           0.000
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.006250         0.002141           -2.920           0.004
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.001370         0.011130           -0.123           0.902
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.022023         0.013296            1.656           0.098
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.007490         0.006325            1.184           0.236
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.003297         0.006292            0.524           0.600
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.009688         0.008874           -1.092           0.275
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.066097         0.018221            3.627           0.000
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.021071         0.073638           -0.286           0.775
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.012820         0.005559            2.306           0.021
L1.NASDAQ Composite                       -0.011060         0.021236           -0.521           0.602
L1.FTSE 100                                0.018324         0.011891            1.541           0.123
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.021647         0.008628            2.509           0.012
L1.CAC 40                                  0.031116         0.028275            1.100           0.271
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.032557         0.036316           -0.896           0.370
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.049115         0.028096           -1.748           0.080
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.001552         0.000552            2.809           0.005
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.001109         0.001270            0.873           0.383
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.035364         0.011289            3.133           0.002
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.003438         0.001849           -1.859           0.063
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Nikkei 225
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.044703         3.240983            0.322           0.747
L1.SET                                     0.285072         0.352911            0.808           0.419
L1.VNI                                     1.106027         0.611101            1.810           0.070
L1.STI Index                               0.240426         0.229439            1.048           0.295
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.346314         0.504051           -0.687           0.492
L1.Composite Index                        -0.050050         0.103474           -0.484           0.629
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.023241         0.068330            0.340           0.734
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.017773         0.023233           -0.765           0.444
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.026522         0.021940           -1.209           0.227
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.328595         0.285742           -1.150           0.250
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.139028         0.022934           -6.062           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.116156         0.119240            0.974           0.330
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.125980         0.142452            0.884           0.376
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.060614         0.067761           -0.895           0.371
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.106325         0.067412            1.577           0.115
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.213897         0.095071            2.250           0.024
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.168808         0.195221            0.865           0.387
L1.Russell 2000                            0.577197         0.788948            0.732           0.464
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.098345         0.059560            1.651           0.099
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.372416         0.227520            1.637           0.102
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.091026         0.127400           -0.714           0.475
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.124982         0.092444            1.352           0.176
L1.CAC 40                                  0.409280         0.302929            1.351           0.177
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.096553         0.389081           -0.248           0.804
L1.BEL 20                                  0.114765         0.301011            0.381           0.703
L1.IBOVESPA                               -0.007127         0.005917           -1.204           0.228
L1.IPC MEXICO                             -0.026498         0.013608           -1.947           0.051
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.021104         0.120947           -0.174           0.861
L1.MERVAL                                  0.036644         0.019808            1.850           0.064
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation ALL ORDINARIES
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                     -0.044079         0.679271           -0.065           0.948
L1.SET                                     0.014254         0.073966            0.193           0.847
L1.VNI                                     0.125976         0.128079            0.984           0.325
L1.STI Index                               0.026219         0.048088            0.545           0.586
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.158457         0.105643           -1.500           0.134
L1.Composite Index                        -0.009873         0.021687           -0.455           0.649
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.012470         0.014321            0.871           0.384
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.007676         0.004869           -1.576           0.115
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.011876         0.004598           -2.583           0.010
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.101142         0.059888           -1.689           0.091
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.007572         0.004807           -1.575           0.115
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.066853         0.024991           -2.675           0.007
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.022215         0.029856           -0.744           0.457
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.028364         0.014202           -1.997           0.046
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.016577         0.014129            1.173           0.241
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.004617         0.019926           -0.232           0.817
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.104240         0.040916            2.548           0.011
L1.Russell 2000                            0.078916         0.165354            0.477           0.633
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.055037         0.012483            4.409           0.000
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.077354         0.047686            1.622           0.105
L1.FTSE 100                                0.087702         0.026702            3.285           0.001
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.043584         0.019375            2.249           0.024
L1.CAC 40                                  0.063122         0.063490            0.994           0.320
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.080207         0.081547           -0.984           0.325
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.066328         0.063088           -1.051           0.293
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002776         0.001240            2.238           0.025
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.000867         0.002852            0.304           0.761
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.016860         0.025349            0.665           0.506
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.004580         0.004151           -1.103           0.270
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS 
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.745389         0.499879            3.492           0.000
L1.SET                                    -0.033486         0.054432           -0.615           0.538
L1.VNI                                     0.090873         0.094254            0.964           0.335
L1.STI Index                               0.061274         0.035388            1.731           0.083
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.087987         0.077743           -1.132           0.258
L1.Composite Index                        -0.010801         0.015959           -0.677           0.499
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.009209         0.010539           -0.874           0.382
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.002772         0.003583           -0.774           0.439
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.000008         0.003384           -0.002           0.998
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.059074         0.044072           -1.340           0.180
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.002964         0.003537           -0.838           0.402
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.030136         0.018391            1.639           0.101
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.003155         0.021971           -0.144           0.886
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.007040         0.010451            0.674           0.501
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.013532         0.010397            1.301           0.193
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.037961         0.014664           -2.589           0.010
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.098772         0.030110            3.280           0.001
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.099375         0.121685           -0.817           0.414
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.007224         0.009186            0.786           0.432
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.083503         0.035092            2.380           0.017
L1.FTSE 100                                0.016871         0.019650            0.859           0.391
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.042178         0.014258            2.958           0.003
L1.CAC 40                                 -0.010137         0.046723           -0.217           0.828
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.096016         0.060011           -1.600           0.110
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.006074         0.046427           -0.131           0.896
L1.IBOVESPA                               -0.000275         0.000913           -0.301           0.763
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.007938         0.002099            3.782           0.000
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.006941         0.018654            0.372           0.710
L1.MERVAL                                  0.000334         0.003055            0.109           0.913
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation TSEC weighted index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.107717         1.290925            0.083           0.934
L1.SET                                     0.155236         0.140569            1.104           0.269
L1.VNI                                     0.350443         0.243410            1.440           0.150
L1.STI Index                               0.132787         0.091389            1.453           0.146
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.319325         0.200770           -1.591           0.112
L1.Composite Index                        -0.072094         0.041215           -1.749           0.080
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.014090         0.027217           -0.518           0.605
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.006727         0.009254            0.727           0.467
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.026134         0.008739           -2.991           0.003
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.018490         0.113815           -0.162           0.871
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.024477         0.009135           -2.680           0.007
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.019471         0.047495            0.410           0.682
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.012792         0.056741            0.225           0.822
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.052973         0.026990           -1.963           0.050
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.040220         0.026851            1.498           0.134
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.004153         0.037868            0.110           0.913
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.139318         0.077759            1.792           0.073
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.740609         0.314248           -2.357           0.018
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.044039         0.023724            1.856           0.063
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.315228         0.090624            3.478           0.001
L1.FTSE 100                                0.084027         0.050745            1.656           0.098
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.017056         0.036822           -0.463           0.643
L1.CAC 40                                  0.295849         0.120660            2.452           0.014
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.153168         0.154976           -0.988           0.323
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.322897         0.119897           -2.693           0.007
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.008962         0.002357            3.802           0.000
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.004545         0.005420            0.838           0.402
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.135523         0.048175            2.813           0.005
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.001453         0.007890           -0.184           0.854
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation NIFTY 50
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.393218         1.162775            1.198           0.231
L1.SET                                    -0.098680         0.126615           -0.779           0.436
L1.VNI                                    -0.127417         0.219246           -0.581           0.561
L1.STI Index                              -0.121191         0.082316           -1.472           0.141
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.328904         0.180840           -1.819           0.069
L1.Composite Index                         0.073831         0.037123            1.989           0.047
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.013746         0.024515            0.561           0.575
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.010170         0.008335            1.220           0.222
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.029194         0.007872           -3.709           0.000
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.083198         0.102516            0.812           0.417
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.005380         0.008228           -0.654           0.513
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.014662         0.042780           -0.343           0.732
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.019175         0.051108           -0.375           0.708
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.030026         0.024311            1.235           0.217
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.033394         0.024186           -1.381           0.167
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.076518         0.034109           -2.243           0.025
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.171424         0.070040            2.448           0.014
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.457916         0.283053           -1.618           0.106
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.013047         0.021369            0.611           0.541
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.360003         0.081628            4.410           0.000
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.006902         0.045708           -0.151           0.880
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.061999         0.033166            1.869           0.062
L1.CAC 40                                 -0.011514         0.108683           -0.106           0.916
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.096659         0.139591           -0.692           0.489
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.203557         0.107995           -1.885           0.059
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.003454         0.002123            1.627           0.104
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.006470         0.004882            1.325           0.185
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.054244         0.043392            1.250           0.211
L1.MERVAL                                  0.010308         0.007106            1.450           0.147
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Dow Jones Industrial Average
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      6.042784         2.359274            2.561           0.010
L1.SET                                    -0.199191         0.256902           -0.775           0.438
L1.VNI                                     0.219559         0.444851            0.494           0.622
L1.STI Index                              -0.005460         0.167020           -0.033           0.974
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.552227         0.366924           -1.505           0.132
L1.Composite Index                         0.074784         0.075324            0.993           0.321
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.007008         0.049741           -0.141           0.888
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.029377         0.016913            1.737           0.082
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.030479         0.015971           -1.908           0.056
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.157489         0.208006           -0.757           0.449
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.002111         0.016695           -0.126           0.899
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.088185         0.086801            1.016           0.310
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.063692         0.103698            0.614           0.539
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.044959         0.049327            0.911           0.362
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.068760         0.049073           -1.401           0.161
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.014148         0.069207           -0.204           0.838
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                    -0.118512         0.142111           -0.834           0.404
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.014898         0.574315           -0.026           0.979
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.076811         0.043357            1.772           0.076
L1.NASDAQ Composite                       -0.174579         0.165624           -1.054           0.292
L1.FTSE 100                                0.032614         0.092741            0.352           0.725
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.084742         0.067295            1.259           0.208
L1.CAC 40                                  0.041560         0.220517            0.188           0.851
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.149914         0.283231           -0.529           0.597
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.007837         0.219121           -0.036           0.971
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002975         0.004308            0.691           0.490
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.007937         0.009906            0.801           0.423
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.144781         0.088043           -1.644           0.100
L1.MERVAL                                  0.006820         0.014419            0.473           0.636
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      2.351881         1.562859            1.505           0.132
L1.SET                                    -0.307917         0.170180           -1.809           0.070
L1.VNI                                     0.183516         0.294684            0.623           0.533
L1.STI Index                              -0.048841         0.110640           -0.441           0.659
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.371087         0.243062           -1.527           0.127
L1.Composite Index                         0.035657         0.049897            0.715           0.475
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.008019         0.032950            0.243           0.808
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.015323         0.011203            1.368           0.171
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.021362         0.010580           -2.019           0.043
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.121681         0.137790           -0.883           0.377
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.001853         0.011059            0.168           0.867
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.030293         0.057500            0.527           0.598
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.038775         0.068693            0.564           0.572
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.041434         0.032675            1.268           0.205
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.030539         0.032507           -0.939           0.347
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.023268         0.045845           -0.508           0.612
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                    -0.077520         0.094139           -0.823           0.410
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.162762         0.380444           -0.428           0.669
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.035950         0.028721            1.252           0.211
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.014324         0.109714            0.131           0.896
L1.FTSE 100                                0.051179         0.061435            0.833           0.405
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.028503         0.044578            0.639           0.523
L1.CAC 40                                  0.032897         0.146078            0.225           0.822
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.041122         0.187622           -0.219           0.827
L1.BEL 20                                  0.029391         0.145153            0.202           0.840
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.003435         0.002853            1.204           0.229
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.003186         0.006562            0.486           0.627
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.091713         0.058323           -1.573           0.116
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.000418         0.009552           -0.044           0.965
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Russell 2000
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.389227         0.215325            1.808           0.071
L1.SET                                    -0.040141         0.023447           -1.712           0.087
L1.VNI                                     0.016720         0.040600            0.412           0.680
L1.STI Index                              -0.011257         0.015244           -0.738           0.460
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.062137         0.033488           -1.856           0.064
L1.Composite Index                         0.008625         0.006875            1.255           0.210
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.001670         0.004540            0.368           0.713
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.001069         0.001544            0.693           0.489
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.000817         0.001458           -0.560           0.575
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.012647         0.018984           -0.666           0.505
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.000826         0.001524            0.542           0.588
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.007118         0.007922            0.898           0.369
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.006579         0.009464            0.695           0.487
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.007606         0.004502            1.689           0.091
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.006752         0.004479           -1.508           0.132
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.004051         0.006316           -0.641           0.521
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.002013         0.012970            0.155           0.877
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.062428         0.052416           -1.191           0.234
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.001007         0.003957            0.254           0.799
L1.NASDAQ Composite                       -0.000221         0.015116           -0.015           0.988
L1.FTSE 100                                0.005273         0.008464            0.623           0.533
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.005864         0.006142            0.955           0.340
L1.CAC 40                                  0.017945         0.020126            0.892           0.373
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.026476         0.025850           -1.024           0.306
L1.BEL 20                                  0.003748         0.019999            0.187           0.851
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.000467         0.000393            1.188           0.235
L1.IPC MEXICO                             -0.000470         0.000904           -0.520           0.603
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.015526         0.008035           -1.932           0.053
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.000742         0.001316           -0.564           0.573
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/TSX Composite index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.420790         1.894688            0.750           0.453
L1.SET                                    -0.454399         0.206313           -2.202           0.028
L1.VNI                                     0.141786         0.357252            0.397           0.691
L1.STI Index                              -0.324492         0.134131           -2.419           0.016
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.333104         0.294670           -1.130           0.258
L1.Composite Index                         0.063958         0.060491            1.057           0.290
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.029802         0.039946            0.746           0.456
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.011822         0.013582            0.870           0.384
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.023706         0.012826           -1.848           0.065
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.210553         0.167046           -1.260           0.208
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.012470         0.013407            0.930           0.352
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.045732         0.069708            0.656           0.512
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.015942         0.083278            0.191           0.848
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.036631         0.039613            0.925           0.355
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.001973         0.039409            0.050           0.960
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.090438         0.055579           -1.627           0.104
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.140418         0.114127            1.230           0.219
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.315042         0.461221           -0.683           0.495
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.037441         0.034819            1.075           0.282
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.054911         0.133009            0.413           0.680
L1.FTSE 100                                0.042133         0.074479            0.566           0.572
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.028719         0.054043            0.531           0.595
L1.CAC 40                                  0.257965         0.177093            1.457           0.145
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.310466         0.227458           -1.365           0.172
L1.BEL 20                                  0.034365         0.175972            0.195           0.845
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.003298         0.003459            0.953           0.340
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.001919         0.007955            0.241           0.809
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.083278         0.070706           -1.178           0.239
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.002100         0.011580           -0.181           0.856
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation NASDAQ Composite
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      2.058855         0.728001            2.828           0.005
L1.SET                                    -0.091489         0.079272           -1.154           0.248
L1.VNI                                     0.007782         0.137268            0.057           0.955
L1.STI Index                               0.002998         0.051537            0.058           0.954
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.180750         0.113222           -1.596           0.110
L1.Composite Index                         0.016255         0.023243            0.699           0.484
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.006156         0.015349           -0.401           0.688
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.002098         0.005219            0.402           0.688
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.008950         0.004928           -1.816           0.069
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.018966         0.064184           -0.295           0.768
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.006591         0.005151            1.279           0.201
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.003872         0.026784           -0.145           0.885
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.029772         0.031998            0.930           0.352
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.034343         0.015221            2.256           0.024
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.024235         0.015142           -1.600           0.109
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.035621         0.021355           -1.668           0.095
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.026737         0.043851            0.610           0.542
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.293460         0.177216           -1.656           0.098
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.017483         0.013379            1.307           0.191
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.006325         0.051106            0.124           0.902
L1.FTSE 100                                0.011026         0.028617            0.385           0.700
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.013998         0.020765            0.674           0.500
L1.CAC 40                                  0.089433         0.068045            1.314           0.189
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.129947         0.087397           -1.487           0.137
L1.BEL 20                                  0.037040         0.067614            0.548           0.584
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.000594         0.001329            0.447           0.655
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.004149         0.003057            1.357           0.175
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.046593         0.027168           -1.715           0.086
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.001092         0.004449           -0.246           0.806
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation FTSE 100
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.148919         1.032943            0.144           0.885
L1.SET                                    -0.230094         0.112477           -2.046           0.041
L1.VNI                                     0.058681         0.194766            0.301           0.763
L1.STI Index                              -0.113875         0.073125           -1.557           0.119
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.170946         0.160648           -1.064           0.287
L1.Composite Index                         0.036932         0.032978            1.120           0.263
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.000904         0.021778            0.041           0.967
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.006862         0.007405            0.927           0.354
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.020156         0.006993           -2.882           0.004
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.000818         0.091070           -0.009           0.993
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.005888         0.007309           -0.806           0.420
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.010730         0.038003           -0.282           0.778
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.080376         0.045401            1.770           0.077
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.030424         0.021596            1.409           0.159
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.007971         0.021485            0.371           0.711
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.012434         0.030300           -0.410           0.682
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.160732         0.062219            2.583           0.010
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.560747         0.251448           -2.230           0.026
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.058426         0.018983            3.078           0.002
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.216895         0.072514            2.991           0.003
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.090597         0.040604           -2.231           0.026
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.005434         0.029463            0.184           0.854
L1.CAC 40                                 -0.009520         0.096547           -0.099           0.921
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.136804         0.124005           -1.103           0.270
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.116799         0.095936           -1.217           0.223
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.004035         0.001886            2.139           0.032
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.002802         0.004337            0.646           0.518
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.001540         0.038547            0.040           0.968
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.006195         0.006313           -0.981           0.326
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.967459         1.922598            1.023           0.306
L1.SET                                    -0.183887         0.209352           -0.878           0.380
L1.VNI                                    -0.236068         0.362514           -0.651           0.515
L1.STI Index                              -0.140144         0.136107           -1.030           0.303
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.251795         0.299010           -0.842           0.400
L1.Composite Index                         0.119389         0.061382            1.945           0.052
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.023300         0.040535           -0.575           0.565
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.000641         0.013782           -0.046           0.963
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.028411         0.013015           -2.183           0.029
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.034057         0.169506            0.201           0.841
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.006156         0.013605            0.453           0.651
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.052744         0.070735           -0.746           0.456
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.100417         0.084505            1.188           0.235
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.069840         0.040197            1.737           0.082
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.049872         0.039990           -1.247           0.212
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.019420         0.056398            0.344           0.731
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.172815         0.115808            1.492           0.136
L1.Russell 2000                            0.089340         0.468015            0.191           0.849
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.059894         0.035332            1.695           0.090
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.133070         0.134968            0.986           0.324
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.136031         0.075576           -1.800           0.072
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.008417         0.054839           -0.153           0.878
L1.CAC 40                                  0.004486         0.179702            0.025           0.980
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.165973         0.230808           -0.719           0.472
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.067085         0.178564           -0.376           0.707
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.003337         0.003510            0.951           0.342
L1.IPC MEXICO                             -0.005338         0.008072           -0.661           0.508
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.006199         0.071747            0.086           0.931
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.010781         0.011750           -0.918           0.359
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation CAC 40
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.224253         0.926669            0.242           0.809
L1.SET                                    -0.153912         0.100905           -1.525           0.127
L1.VNI                                    -0.027235         0.174727           -0.156           0.876
L1.STI Index                              -0.066919         0.065602           -1.020           0.308
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.111481         0.144119           -0.774           0.439
L1.Composite Index                         0.050667         0.029585            1.713           0.087
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.010192         0.019537           -0.522           0.602
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.003047         0.006643            0.459           0.646
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.013293         0.006273           -2.119           0.034
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.013906         0.081700            0.170           0.865
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.000146         0.006557           -0.022           0.982
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.040114         0.034093           -1.177           0.239
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.058903         0.040730            1.446           0.148
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.025592         0.019374            1.321           0.187
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.026601         0.019275           -1.380           0.168
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.003557         0.027183            0.131           0.896
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.135392         0.055818            2.426           0.015
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.235481         0.225578           -1.044           0.297
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.021161         0.017030            1.243           0.214
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.053078         0.065053            0.816           0.415
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.052519         0.036427           -1.442           0.149
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.006012         0.026432           -0.227           0.820
L1.CAC 40                                 -0.040989         0.086614           -0.473           0.636
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.052160         0.111247           -0.469           0.639
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.044117         0.086066           -0.513           0.608
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002302         0.001692            1.361           0.174
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.001422         0.003891            0.366           0.715
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.005563         0.034581           -0.161           0.872
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.004507         0.005663           -0.796           0.426
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation ESTX 50 PR.EUR
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                     -0.066962         0.676614           -0.099           0.921
L1.SET                                    -0.096491         0.073677           -1.310           0.190
L1.VNI                                    -0.035796         0.127579           -0.281           0.779
L1.STI Index                              -0.027626         0.047900           -0.577           0.564
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.098100         0.105230           -0.932           0.351
L1.Composite Index                         0.019340         0.021602            0.895           0.371
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.008125         0.014265           -0.570           0.569
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.004152         0.004850            0.856           0.392
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.012302         0.004580           -2.686           0.007
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.004236         0.059654           -0.071           0.943
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.000390         0.004788            0.082           0.935
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.030040         0.024894           -1.207           0.228
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.035669         0.029739            1.199           0.230
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.015276         0.014146            1.080           0.280
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.019075         0.014074           -1.355           0.175
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.004596         0.019848           -0.232           0.817
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.119951         0.040756            2.943           0.003
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.208543         0.164707           -1.266           0.205
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.008202         0.012434            0.660           0.509
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.030573         0.047499            0.644           0.520
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.048572         0.026597           -1.826           0.068
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.031014         0.019299            1.607           0.108
L1.CAC 40                                  0.131697         0.063242            2.082           0.037
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.366372         0.081228           -4.510           0.000
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.000416         0.062842           -0.007           0.995
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.001896         0.001235            1.535           0.125
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.001527         0.002841            0.538           0.591
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.001902         0.025250           -0.075           0.940
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.005122         0.004135           -1.239           0.215
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation BEL 20
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.310238         0.570150            0.544           0.586
L1.SET                                    -0.117818         0.062084           -1.898           0.058
L1.VNI                                    -0.033937         0.107504           -0.316           0.752
L1.STI Index                              -0.043728         0.040363           -1.083           0.279
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.098523         0.088672           -1.111           0.267
L1.Composite Index                         0.032728         0.018203            1.798           0.072
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.000901         0.012021            0.075           0.940
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.001850         0.004087            0.453           0.651
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.008869         0.003860           -2.298           0.022
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.038872         0.050267           -0.773           0.439
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.000970         0.004034           -0.240           0.810
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.017629         0.020977           -0.840           0.401
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.041101         0.025060            1.640           0.101
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.015010         0.011920            1.259           0.208
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.016242         0.011859           -1.370           0.171
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average            0.003654         0.016725            0.219           0.827
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.068685         0.034343            2.000           0.046
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.172206         0.138791           -1.241           0.215
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.008930         0.010478            0.852           0.394
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.090848         0.040025            2.270           0.023
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.042806         0.022412           -1.910           0.056
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                  -0.001002         0.016263           -0.062           0.951
L1.CAC 40                                  0.051218         0.053291            0.961           0.337
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.093105         0.068447           -1.360           0.174
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.040651         0.052954           -0.768           0.443
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.000823         0.001041            0.791           0.429
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.000195         0.002394            0.082           0.935
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.008311         0.021277            0.391           0.696
L1.MERVAL                                 -0.002877         0.003485           -0.826           0.409
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation IBOVESPA
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      5.237910        14.891698            0.352           0.725
L1.SET                                    -1.945022         1.621560           -1.199           0.230
L1.VNI                                     1.962067         2.807895            0.699           0.485
L1.STI Index                              -1.872597         1.054229           -1.776           0.076
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -2.405708         2.316019           -1.039           0.299
L1.Composite Index                        -0.262799         0.475442           -0.553           0.580
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.066614         0.313965           -0.212           0.832
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.128945         0.106752            1.208           0.227
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.162451         0.100811           -1.611           0.107
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.676528         1.312931            0.515           0.606
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.192894         0.105376           -1.831           0.067
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.999355         0.547887            1.824           0.068
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.425901         0.654541            0.651           0.515
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.052481         0.311348            0.169           0.866
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.374668         0.309747            1.210           0.226
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.894607         0.436834           -2.048           0.041
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.997010         0.897004            1.111           0.266
L1.Russell 2000                           -6.192990         3.625065           -1.708           0.088
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.817274         0.273668            2.986           0.003
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        1.101792         1.045413            1.054           0.292
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.122767         0.585380           -0.210           0.834
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.505310         0.424763            1.190           0.234
L1.CAC 40                                  1.404800         1.391900            1.009           0.313
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -1.148035         1.787751           -0.642           0.521
L1.BEL 20                                 -1.632838         1.383090           -1.181           0.238
L1.IBOVESPA                               -0.073840         0.027189           -2.716           0.007
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.096683         0.062526            1.546           0.122
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.441121         0.555728           -0.794           0.427
L1.MERVAL                                  0.068428         0.091013            0.752           0.452
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation IPC MEXICO
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      4.815634         6.598825            0.730           0.466
L1.SET                                    -0.648867         0.718547           -0.903           0.367
L1.VNI                                     1.662978         1.244237            1.337           0.181
L1.STI Index                              -0.392409         0.467151           -0.840           0.401
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -1.459753         1.026277           -1.422           0.155
L1.Composite Index                         0.382806         0.210678            1.817           0.069
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.122643         0.139124           -0.882           0.378
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.082340         0.047304            1.741           0.082
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.089336         0.044672           -2.000           0.046
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.241754         0.581787           -0.416           0.678
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.045817         0.046694           -0.981           0.326
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.041267         0.242780            0.170           0.865
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.177954         0.290041            0.614           0.540
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.216481         0.137965            1.569           0.117
L1.NIFTY 50                               -0.041498         0.137255           -0.302           0.762
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.314845         0.193570           -1.627           0.104
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.746082         0.397481            1.877           0.061
L1.Russell 2000                           -2.325527         1.606343           -1.448           0.148
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.136407         0.121268            1.125           0.261
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.369930         0.463245            0.799           0.425
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.365630         0.259394           -1.410           0.159
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.328833         0.188221            1.747           0.081
L1.CAC 40                                 -0.038751         0.616780           -0.063           0.950
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.605367         0.792190           -0.764           0.445
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.377141         0.612876           -0.615           0.538
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002652         0.012048            0.220           0.826
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.019389         0.027706            0.700           0.484
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.106614         0.246255           -0.433           0.665
L1.MERVAL                                  0.077897         0.040330            1.931           0.053
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/CLX IPSA
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.565407         0.660380            0.856           0.392
L1.SET                                    -0.049772         0.071909           -0.692           0.489
L1.VNI                                     0.151167         0.124518            1.214           0.225
L1.STI Index                              -0.105945         0.046750           -2.266           0.023
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI               -0.128479         0.102705           -1.251           0.211
L1.Composite Index                         0.077746         0.021084            3.688           0.000
L1.PSEi INDEX                             -0.018585         0.013923           -1.335           0.182
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.007701         0.004734            1.627           0.104
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.015266         0.004471           -3.415           0.001
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.065214         0.058223           -1.120           0.263
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.003116         0.004673           -0.667           0.505
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.014443         0.024296           -0.594           0.552
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.016087         0.029026            0.554           0.579
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.006689         0.013807            0.484           0.628
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.006836         0.013736            0.498           0.619
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.013120         0.019372           -0.677           0.498
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.037660         0.039778            0.947           0.344
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.117132         0.160755           -0.729           0.466
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.027635         0.012136            2.277           0.023
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.039379         0.046359            0.849           0.396
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.009718         0.025959           -0.374           0.708
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.004579         0.018836            0.243           0.808
L1.CAC 40                                  0.021779         0.061725            0.353           0.724
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.079802         0.079279           -1.007           0.314
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.023464         0.061334           -0.383           0.702
L1.IBOVESPA                                0.002947         0.001206            2.444           0.015
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.002757         0.002773            0.994           0.320
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                            0.080910         0.024644            3.283           0.001
L1.MERVAL                                  0.001819         0.004036            0.451           0.652
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation MERVAL
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                     11.622486         3.752633            3.097           0.002
L1.SET                                    -0.473951         0.408625           -1.160           0.246
L1.VNI                                    -0.164416         0.707575           -0.232           0.816
L1.STI Index                              -0.223888         0.265660           -0.843           0.399
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI                0.052288         0.583625            0.090           0.929
L1.Composite Index                        -0.018736         0.119809           -0.156           0.876
L1.PSEi INDEX                              0.029481         0.079118            0.373           0.709
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.019733         0.026901            0.734           0.463
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.007116         0.025404           -0.280           0.779
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.261280         0.330852            0.790           0.430
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.040702         0.026554           -1.533           0.125
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.151551         0.138065            1.098           0.272
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.068990         0.164941           -0.418           0.676
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.011430         0.078458           -0.146           0.884
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.021833         0.078055            0.280           0.780
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average           -0.217314         0.110080           -1.974           0.048
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                     0.144808         0.226040            0.641           0.522
L1.Russell 2000                           -0.415908         0.913498           -0.455           0.649
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index                 0.075251         0.068963            1.091           0.275
L1.NASDAQ Composite                        0.369765         0.263439            1.404           0.160
L1.FTSE 100                               -0.016023         0.147513           -0.109           0.914
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX                   0.141654         0.107038            1.323           0.186
L1.CAC 40                                  0.178150         0.350752            0.508           0.612
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                         -0.465402         0.450504           -1.033           0.302
L1.BEL 20                                 -0.277083         0.348532           -0.795           0.427
L1.IBOVESPA                               -0.001485         0.006852           -0.217           0.828
L1.IPC MEXICO                              0.011944         0.015756            0.758           0.448
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                           -0.022670         0.140041           -0.162           0.871
L1.MERVAL                                  0.044161         0.022935            1.925           0.054
=====================================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                                        SET       VNI  STI Index  FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI  Composite Index  PSEi INDEX  HANG SENG INDEX  Shenzhen Component  KOSPI Composite Index  Nikkei 225  ALL ORDINARIES  S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS   TSEC weighted index  NIFTY 50  Dow Jones Industrial Average  NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)  Russell 2000  S&P/TSX Composite index  NASDAQ Composite  FTSE 100  DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX    CAC 40  ESTX 50 PR.EUR    BEL 20  IBOVESPA  IPC MEXICO  S&P/CLX IPSA    MERVAL
SET                                1.000000  0.091746   0.399098                  0.303999         0.387547    0.276421         0.368846            0.162146               0.289636    0.213196        0.244583                         0.137959             0.283968  0.353833                      0.210013             0.244560      0.197087                 0.229980          0.208588  0.285666               0.281206  0.283829        0.267344  0.284370  0.165625    0.246910      0.219204  0.111275
VNI                                0.091746  1.000000   0.116876                  0.131814         0.083149    0.112822         0.128269            0.081191               0.085807    0.104103        0.125459                         0.086405             0.124687  0.100181                      0.091815             0.087052      0.070593                 0.062753          0.090261  0.075409               0.082645  0.095138        0.086302  0.089301  0.049315    0.047632      0.055143  0.077693
STI Index                          0.399098  0.116876   1.000000                  0.393381         0.418465    0.262831         0.578549            0.252167               0.454188    0.368429        0.460607                         0.216456             0.457166  0.422596                      0.306399             0.346646      0.280416                 0.335336          0.291471  0.409935               0.372573  0.406093        0.392346  0.393716  0.247495    0.273321      0.282815  0.134600
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI           0.303999  0.131814   0.393381                  1.000000         0.409643    0.330924         0.352826            0.109266               0.315138    0.268746        0.284785                         0.176605             0.366616  0.258566                      0.149773             0.174943      0.142094                 0.168445          0.163159  0.224033               0.210760  0.215259        0.211135  0.215067  0.145155    0.220493      0.227177  0.080279
Composite Index                    0.387547  0.083149   0.418465                  0.409643         1.000000    0.359557         0.379314            0.168805               0.332753    0.203696        0.266869                         0.136836             0.350891  0.340776                      0.165626             0.197353      0.150378                 0.204844          0.161361  0.233919               0.212022  0.228062        0.220798  0.227278  0.171468    0.236461      0.260783  0.102816
PSEi INDEX                         0.276421  0.112822   0.262831                  0.330924         0.359557    1.000000         0.250418            0.128843               0.235659    0.245133        0.210009                         0.206513             0.285617  0.232362                      0.092509             0.102508      0.078764                 0.113839          0.105312  0.144888               0.128185  0.119768        0.116707  0.118892  0.085780    0.176790      0.179143  0.070007
HANG SENG INDEX                    0.368846  0.128269   0.578549                  0.352826         0.379314    0.250418         1.000000            0.433815               0.506504    0.367137        0.446708                         0.176188             0.501667  0.424979                      0.237072             0.290452      0.232071                 0.268928          0.265246  0.379380               0.346507  0.364192        0.350253  0.348244  0.278434    0.277335      0.270282  0.142198
Shenzhen Component                 0.162146  0.081191   0.252167                  0.109266         0.168805    0.128843         0.433815            1.000000               0.205305    0.170545        0.189251                         0.057166             0.252173  0.164211                      0.121386             0.144762      0.119133                 0.144906          0.149129  0.159082               0.134450  0.154396        0.142804  0.150712  0.122767    0.122758      0.118085  0.072225
KOSPI Composite Index              0.289636  0.085807   0.454188                  0.315138         0.332753    0.235659         0.506504            0.205305               1.000000    0.345690        0.437158                         0.172700             0.578582  0.333354                      0.223002             0.254886      0.205655                 0.224711          0.227660  0.291854               0.255919  0.267714        0.255582  0.262987  0.210297    0.242381      0.247958  0.115926
Nikkei 225                         0.213196  0.104103   0.368429                  0.268746         0.203696    0.245133         0.367137            0.170545               0.345690    1.000000        0.376921                         0.253309             0.352555  0.267101                      0.200882             0.216807      0.174447                 0.167009          0.194104  0.249045               0.255360  0.269054        0.263562  0.264835  0.097633    0.184355      0.124926  0.129774
ALL ORDINARIES                     0.244583  0.125459   0.460607                  0.284785         0.266869    0.210009         0.446708            0.189251               0.437158    0.376921        1.000000                         0.365617             0.431637  0.275319                      0.227862             0.268240      0.229989                 0.251773          0.239171  0.343737               0.274196  0.306544        0.286303  0.316831  0.180873    0.232621      0.230815  0.104893
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS     0.137959  0.086405   0.216456                  0.176605         0.136836    0.206513         0.176188            0.057166               0.172700    0.253309        0.365617                         1.000000             0.206003  0.158913                      0.092770             0.099102      0.081138                 0.095023          0.094508  0.132833               0.113145  0.124602        0.115991  0.138063  0.049125    0.089011      0.073290  0.079608
TSEC weighted index                0.283968  0.124687   0.457166                  0.366616         0.350891    0.285617         0.501667            0.252173               0.578582    0.352555        0.431637                         0.206003             1.000000  0.309926                      0.207203             0.246802      0.210323                 0.229936          0.222453  0.274915               0.250236  0.263785        0.252580  0.257164  0.184173    0.229045      0.244813  0.140675
NIFTY 50                           0.353833  0.100181   0.422596                  0.258566         0.340776    0.232362         0.424979            0.164211               0.333354    0.267101        0.275319                         0.158913             0.309926  1.000000                      0.293392             0.325298      0.278404                 0.287180          0.287454  0.374822               0.378882  0.379926        0.372360  0.383574  0.250982    0.288133      0.264643  0.164276
Dow Jones Industrial Average       0.210013  0.091815   0.306399                  0.149773         0.165626    0.092509         0.237072            0.121386               0.223002    0.200882        0.227862                         0.092770             0.207203  0.293392                      1.000000             0.943408      0.833918                 0.698947          0.872114  0.628569               0.601991  0.636589        0.623776  0.607010  0.506126    0.562971      0.418295  0.373523
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                0.244560  0.087052   0.346646                  0.174943         0.197353    0.102508         0.290452            0.144762               0.254886    0.216807        0.268240                         0.099102             0.246802  0.325298                      0.943408             1.000000      0.888866                 0.792751          0.870901  0.684280               0.630803  0.689534        0.677206  0.656803  0.581415    0.627799      0.471160  0.386562
Russell 2000                       0.197087  0.070593   0.280416                  0.142094         0.150378    0.078764         0.232071            0.119133               0.205655    0.174447        0.229989                         0.081138             0.210323  0.278404                      0.833918             0.888866      1.000000                 0.698149          0.882167  0.567515               0.553299  0.578614        0.567324  0.556591  0.478459    0.554650      0.405847  0.318447
S&P/TSX Composite index            0.229980  0.062753   0.335336                  0.168445         0.204844    0.113839         0.268928            0.144906               0.224711    0.167009        0.251773                         0.095023             0.229936  0.287180                      0.698947             0.792751      0.698149                 1.000000          0.673765  0.588667               0.516952  0.565160        0.548685  0.537412  0.515990    0.541981      0.451815  0.359792
NASDAQ Composite                   0.208588  0.090261   0.291471                  0.163159         0.161361    0.105312         0.265246            0.149129               0.227660    0.194104        0.239171                         0.094508             0.222453  0.287454                      0.872114             0.870901      0.882167                 0.673765          1.000000  0.568419               0.570190  0.581430        0.571885  0.562829  0.462993    0.541424      0.397378  0.360899
FTSE 100                           0.285666  0.075409   0.409935                  0.224033         0.233919    0.144888         0.379380            0.159082               0.291854    0.249045        0.343737                         0.132833             0.274915  0.374822                      0.628569             0.684280      0.567515                 0.588667          0.568419  1.000000               0.792176  0.850358        0.827926  0.818090  0.452838    0.508077      0.436641  0.273697
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX              0.281206  0.082645   0.372573                  0.210760         0.212022    0.128185         0.346507            0.134450               0.255919    0.255360        0.274196                         0.113145             0.250236  0.378882                      0.601991             0.630803      0.553299                 0.516952          0.570190  0.792176               1.000000  0.912058        0.918540  0.871127  0.361406    0.468303      0.377736  0.266660
CAC 40                             0.283829  0.095138   0.406093                  0.215259         0.228062    0.119768         0.364192            0.154396               0.267714    0.269054        0.306544                         0.124602             0.263785  0.379926                      0.636589             0.689534      0.578614                 0.565160          0.581430  0.850358               0.912058  1.000000        0.966800  0.914380  0.426232    0.499063      0.411217  0.281366
ESTX 50 PR.EUR                     0.267344  0.086302   0.392346                  0.211135         0.220798    0.116707         0.350253            0.142804               0.255582    0.263562        0.286303                         0.115991             0.252580  0.372360                      0.623776             0.677206      0.567324                 0.548685          0.571885  0.827926               0.918540  0.966800        1.000000  0.907414  0.411901    0.484588      0.401572  0.272603
BEL 20                             0.284370  0.089301   0.393716                  0.215067         0.227278    0.118892         0.348244            0.150712               0.262987    0.264835        0.316831                         0.138063             0.257164  0.383574                      0.607010             0.656803      0.556591                 0.537412          0.562829  0.818090               0.871127  0.914380        0.907414  1.000000  0.407750    0.479460      0.394006  0.280055
IBOVESPA                           0.165625  0.049315   0.247495                  0.145155         0.171468    0.085780         0.278434            0.122767               0.210297    0.097633        0.180873                         0.049125             0.184173  0.250982                      0.506126             0.581415      0.478459                 0.515990          0.462993  0.452838               0.361406  0.426232        0.411901  0.407750  1.000000    0.514838      0.446371  0.397543
IPC MEXICO                         0.246910  0.047632   0.273321                  0.220493         0.236461    0.176790         0.277335            0.122758               0.242381    0.184355        0.232621                         0.089011             0.229045  0.288133                      0.562971             0.627799      0.554650                 0.541981          0.541424  0.508077               0.468303  0.499063        0.484588  0.479460  0.514838    1.000000      0.453085  0.308456
S&P/CLX IPSA                       0.219204  0.055143   0.282815                  0.227177         0.260783    0.179143         0.270282            0.118085               0.247958    0.124926        0.230815                         0.073290             0.244813  0.264643                      0.418295             0.471160      0.405847                 0.451815          0.397378  0.436641               0.377736  0.411217        0.401572  0.394006  0.446371    0.453085      1.000000  0.240304
MERVAL                             0.111275  0.077693   0.134600                  0.080279         0.102816    0.070007         0.142198            0.072225               0.115926    0.129774        0.104893                         0.079608             0.140675  0.164276                      0.373523             0.386562      0.318447                 0.359792          0.360899  0.273697               0.266660  0.281366        0.272603  0.280055  0.397543    0.308456      0.240304  1.000000


#Durbin Watson
from statsmodels.stats.stattools import durbin_watson
out = durbin_watson(res_world.resid)

print('Durbin Watson Test')
for col,val in zip(X_transform_data.columns,out):
    print((col), ':', round(val,2))

Durbin Watson Test
SET : 2.06
VNI : 1.98
STI Index : 2.07
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI : 2.04
Composite Index : 2.02
PSEi INDEX : 2.04
HANG SENG INDEX : 2.08
Shenzhen Component : 2.01
KOSPI Composite Index : 2.1
Nikkei 225 : 2.05
ALL ORDINARIES : 2.13
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS  : 2.0
TSEC weighted index : 2.07
NIFTY 50 : 2.04
Dow Jones Industrial Average : 2.0
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ) : 2.0
Russell 2000 : 2.0
S&P/TSX Composite index : 2.01
NASDAQ Composite : 2.0
FTSE 100 : 2.05
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX : 2.02
CAC 40 : 2.02
ESTX 50 PR.EUR : 2.02
BEL 20 : 2.02
IBOVESPA : 2.0
IPC MEXICO : 2.0
S&P/CLX IPSA : 2.01
MERVAL : 1.99


y_fitted = res_world.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_world.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#ASEAN
X_transform_ASEAN = X_transform_data[['SET','VNI','STI Index','FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI','Composite Index','PSEi INDEX']]

#Lag Order Selection
model_ASEAN = VAR(endog = X_transform_ASEAN)
res_ASEAN = model_ASEAN.select_order(30)
print(res_ASEAN.summary())

mod_ASEAN = VAR(X_transform_ASEAN)
res_ASEAN = mod_ASEAN.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_ASEAN.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

 VAR Order Selection (* highlights the minimums)  
==================================================
       AIC         BIC         FPE         HQIC   
--------------------------------------------------
0        32.69      32.70*   1.568e+14       32.69
1        32.64       32.74   1.498e+14      32.68*
2        32.64       32.83   1.503e+14       32.71
3       32.63*       32.90  1.487e+14*       32.73
4        32.64       33.00   1.498e+14       32.77
5        32.65       33.09   1.513e+14       32.81
6        32.65       33.18   1.517e+14       32.85
7        32.66       33.28   1.535e+14       32.89
8        32.68       33.38   1.557e+14       32.93
9        32.69       33.48   1.580e+14       32.98
10       32.71       33.58   1.602e+14       33.02
11       32.72       33.68   1.624e+14       33.07
12       32.74       33.78   1.650e+14       33.12
13       32.74       33.87   1.663e+14       33.15
14       32.76       33.97   1.682e+14       33.20
15       32.76       34.06   1.697e+14       33.24
16       32.77       34.16   1.707e+14       33.27
17       32.79       34.26   1.739e+14       33.32
18       32.80       34.36   1.763e+14       33.37
19       32.81       34.45   1.777e+14       33.41
20       32.82       34.55   1.793e+14       33.45
21       32.84       34.65   1.821e+14       33.49
22       32.84       34.74   1.834e+14       33.53
23       32.86       34.84   1.861e+14       33.58
24       32.87       34.94   1.886e+14       33.62
25       32.88       35.04   1.915e+14       33.67
26       32.90       35.14   1.937e+14       33.71
27       32.91       35.23   1.956e+14       33.75
28       32.92       35.33   1.985e+14       33.80
29       32.94       35.43   2.015e+14       33.84
30       32.96       35.54   2.056e+14       33.89
--------------------------------------------------

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:31:25
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         6.00000    BIC:                    32.9084
Nobs:                     2463.00    HQIC:                   32.7372
Log likelihood:          -61050.6    FPE:                1.49674e+14
AIC:                      32.6395    Det(Omega_mle):     1.42930e+14
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
==============================================================================================
                                 coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                               0.393622         0.224475            1.754           0.080
L1.SET                             -0.009374         0.023998           -0.391           0.696
L1.VNI                              0.077350         0.042477            1.821           0.069
L1.STI Index                        0.005184         0.013327            0.389           0.697
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.044271         0.034227           -1.293           0.196
L1.Composite Index                  0.023454         0.007064            3.320           0.001
L1.PSEi INDEX                      -0.005745         0.004655           -1.234           0.217
L2.SET                             -0.039454         0.024132           -1.635           0.102
L2.VNI                             -0.015738         0.042844           -0.367           0.713
L2.STI Index                        0.007644         0.013385            0.571           0.568
L2.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.005999         0.034341            0.175           0.861
L2.Composite Index                  0.018217         0.007082            2.572           0.010
L2.PSEi INDEX                      -0.002307         0.004655           -0.496           0.620
L3.SET                             -0.011373         0.024071           -0.472           0.637
L3.VNI                              0.036473         0.043419            0.840           0.401
L3.STI Index                        0.005125         0.013384            0.383           0.702
L3.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.040886         0.034247           -1.194           0.233
L3.Composite Index                  0.000662         0.007095            0.093           0.926
L3.PSEi INDEX                       0.001415         0.004593            0.308           0.758
==============================================================================================

Results for equation VNI
==============================================================================================
                                 coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                               0.170981         0.109750            1.558           0.119
L1.SET                              0.005005         0.011733            0.427           0.670
L1.VNI                              0.056701         0.020768            2.730           0.006
L1.STI Index                        0.022459         0.006516            3.447           0.001
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.009624         0.016734            0.575           0.565
L1.Composite Index                 -0.005479         0.003454           -1.586           0.113
L1.PSEi INDEX                       0.002500         0.002276            1.099           0.272
L2.SET                             -0.006171         0.011799           -0.523           0.601
L2.VNI                             -0.003802         0.020947           -0.182           0.856
L2.STI Index                       -0.001328         0.006544           -0.203           0.839
L2.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.004328         0.016790            0.258           0.797
L2.Composite Index                  0.011113         0.003463            3.209           0.001
L2.PSEi INDEX                      -0.005378         0.002276           -2.363           0.018
L3.SET                              0.014325         0.011769            1.217           0.224
L3.VNI                              0.049610         0.021229            2.337           0.019
L3.STI Index                        0.014415         0.006543            2.203           0.028
L3.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.034416         0.016744           -2.055           0.040
L3.Composite Index                  0.002284         0.003469            0.658           0.510
L3.PSEi INDEX                      -0.000791         0.002245           -0.352           0.725
==============================================================================================

Results for equation STI Index
==============================================================================================
                                 coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                               0.101544         0.428507            0.237           0.813
L1.SET                              0.119481         0.045811            2.608           0.009
L1.VNI                              0.013705         0.081085            0.169           0.866
L1.STI Index                        0.018743         0.025441            0.737           0.461
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.117298         0.065336           -1.795           0.073
L1.Composite Index                  0.011035         0.013486            0.818           0.413
L1.PSEi INDEX                      -0.001737         0.008886           -0.196           0.845
L2.SET                              0.037904         0.046067            0.823           0.411
L2.VNI                              0.032642         0.081786            0.399           0.690
L2.STI Index                       -0.026891         0.025551           -1.052           0.293
L2.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.147019         0.065554            2.243           0.025
L2.Composite Index                  0.013649         0.013519            1.010           0.313
L2.PSEi INDEX                      -0.000677         0.008885           -0.076           0.939
L3.SET                              0.027022         0.045950            0.588           0.556
L3.VNI                             -0.025819         0.082884           -0.312           0.755
L3.STI Index                        0.018221         0.025548            0.713           0.476
L3.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.019693         0.065374           -0.301           0.763
L3.Composite Index                 -0.018838         0.013544           -1.391           0.164
L3.PSEi INDEX                      -0.001249         0.008767           -0.142           0.887
==============================================================================================

Results for equation FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI
==============================================================================================
                                 coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                               0.209945         0.164686            1.275           0.202
L1.SET                              0.043180         0.017606            2.453           0.014
L1.VNI                             -0.020964         0.031163           -0.673           0.501
L1.STI Index                        0.026603         0.009778            2.721           0.007
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.002419         0.025110            0.096           0.923
L1.Composite Index                  0.009934         0.005183            1.917           0.055
L1.PSEi INDEX                      -0.005024         0.003415           -1.471           0.141
L2.SET                             -0.003682         0.017705           -0.208           0.835
L2.VNI                             -0.029826         0.031432           -0.949           0.343
L2.STI Index                        0.014906         0.009820            1.518           0.129
L2.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.018697         0.025194            0.742           0.458
L2.Composite Index                  0.007380         0.005196            1.420           0.155
L2.PSEi INDEX                      -0.004840         0.003415           -1.417           0.156
L3.SET                             -0.007431         0.017660           -0.421           0.674
L3.VNI                             -0.015059         0.031855           -0.473           0.636
L3.STI Index                        0.010275         0.009819            1.046           0.295
L3.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.024257         0.025125           -0.965           0.334
L3.Composite Index                  0.003229         0.005205            0.620           0.535
L3.PSEi INDEX                      -0.003820         0.003369           -1.134           0.257
==============================================================================================

Results for equation Composite Index
==============================================================================================
                                 coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                               1.823350         0.818995            2.226           0.026
L1.SET                              0.253528         0.087557            2.896           0.004
L1.VNI                             -0.241988         0.154976           -1.561           0.118
L1.STI Index                        0.064958         0.048625            1.336           0.182
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.216667         0.124875           -1.735           0.083
L1.Composite Index                  0.023190         0.025775            0.900           0.368
L1.PSEi INDEX                      -0.025368         0.016983           -1.494           0.135
L2.SET                              0.090916         0.088047            1.033           0.302
L2.VNI                             -0.163333         0.156316           -1.045           0.296
L2.STI Index                        0.051765         0.048836            1.060           0.289
L2.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.095382         0.125292            0.761           0.446
L2.Composite Index                 -0.018196         0.025839           -0.704           0.481
L2.PSEi INDEX                      -0.011688         0.016982           -0.688           0.491
L3.SET                              0.120738         0.087823            1.375           0.169
L3.VNI                             -0.137714         0.158415           -0.869           0.385
L3.STI Index                        0.112503         0.048830            2.304           0.021
L3.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.281494         0.124949           -2.253           0.024
L3.Composite Index                 -0.089470         0.025887           -3.456           0.001
L3.PSEi INDEX                      -0.019699         0.016757           -1.176           0.240
==============================================================================================

Results for equation PSEi INDEX
==============================================================================================
                                 coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                               2.048744         1.126858            1.818           0.069
L1.SET                              0.622483         0.120470            5.167           0.000
L1.VNI                             -0.227881         0.213232           -1.069           0.285
L1.STI Index                        0.304480         0.066903            4.551           0.000
L1.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.307975         0.171817           -1.792           0.073
L1.Composite Index                  0.095649         0.035464            2.697           0.007
L1.PSEi INDEX                      -0.062969         0.023367           -2.695           0.007
L2.SET                              0.174079         0.121144            1.437           0.151
L2.VNI                             -0.346538         0.215076           -1.611           0.107
L2.STI Index                       -0.016175         0.067193           -0.241           0.810
L2.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI         0.142925         0.172390            0.829           0.407
L2.Composite Index                  0.094051         0.035552            2.645           0.008
L2.PSEi INDEX                      -0.068237         0.023366           -2.920           0.003
L3.SET                             -0.009352         0.120836           -0.077           0.938
L3.VNI                              0.007794         0.217964            0.036           0.971
L3.STI Index                        0.109845         0.067185            1.635           0.102
L3.FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI        -0.204474         0.171917           -1.189           0.234
L3.Composite Index                  0.103208         0.035618            2.898           0.004
L3.PSEi INDEX                      -0.077167         0.023056           -3.347           0.001
==============================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                                 SET       VNI  STI Index  FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI  Composite Index  PSEi INDEX
SET                         1.000000  0.122465   0.454669                  0.368461         0.448056    0.334652
VNI                         0.122465  1.000000   0.163617                  0.175119         0.127261    0.150378
STI Index                   0.454669  0.163617   1.000000                  0.475551         0.491481    0.347622
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI    0.368461  0.175119   0.475551                  1.000000         0.486761    0.406534
Composite Index             0.448056  0.127261   0.491481                  0.486761         1.000000    0.434169
PSEi INDEX                  0.334652  0.150378   0.347622                  0.406534         0.434169    1.000000


y_fitted = res_ASEAN.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_ASEAN.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#ASIA
X_transform_ASIA = X_transform_data[['SET','HANG SENG INDEX','Shenzhen Component','KOSPI Composite Index'
                                     ,'Nikkei 225','TSEC weighted index','NIFTY 50','ALL ORDINARIES','S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS ']]
#Lag Order Selection
model_ASIA = VAR(endog = X_transform_ASIA)
res_ASIA = model_ASIA.select_order(30)
print(res_ASIA.summary())

mod_ASIA = VAR(X_transform_ASIA)
res_ASIA = mod_ASIA.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_ASIA.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

 VAR Order Selection (* highlights the minimums)  
==================================================
       AIC         BIC         FPE         HQIC   
--------------------------------------------------
0        69.24      69.26*   1.176e+30      69.25*
1       69.18*       69.39  1.108e+30*       69.26
2        69.20       69.61   1.135e+30       69.35
3        69.24       69.84   1.180e+30       69.46
4        69.26       70.05   1.201e+30       69.55
5        69.29       70.28   1.240e+30       69.65
6        69.32       70.50   1.273e+30       69.75
7        69.33       70.70   1.282e+30       69.82
8        69.35       70.91   1.311e+30       69.92
9        69.39       71.14   1.362e+30       70.02
10       69.42       71.37   1.404e+30       70.13
11       69.45       71.59   1.451e+30       70.23
12       69.48       71.82   1.501e+30       70.33
13       69.51       72.04   1.538e+30       70.43
14       69.53       72.25   1.568e+30       70.52
15       69.56       72.47   1.624e+30       70.62
16       69.59       72.70   1.677e+30       70.72
17       69.63       72.93   1.738e+30       70.83
18       69.66       73.16   1.800e+30       70.93
19       69.69       73.37   1.842e+30       71.03
20       69.70       73.58   1.876e+30       71.11
21       69.72       73.79   1.910e+30       71.20
22       69.74       74.01   1.956e+30       71.29
23       69.77       74.23   2.006e+30       71.39
24       69.80       74.44   2.059e+30       71.49
25       69.83       74.68   2.142e+30       71.59
26       69.87       74.90   2.217e+30       71.70
27       69.90       75.13   2.295e+30       71.80
28       69.93       75.34   2.350e+30       71.90
29       69.94       75.55   2.377e+30       71.98
30       69.97       75.77   2.456e+30       72.08
--------------------------------------------------

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:31:57
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         9.00000    BIC:                    69.3972
Nobs:                     2465.00    HQIC:                   69.2621
Log likelihood:          -116660.    FPE:                1.11350e+30
AIC:                      69.1851    Det(Omega_mle):     1.07366e+30
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.405197         0.223560            1.812           0.070
L1.SET                                     0.007948         0.023164            0.343           0.732
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.000212         0.001520            0.139           0.889
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.003685         0.001513           -2.435           0.015
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.031269         0.019650            1.591           0.112
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.005116         0.001554           -3.293           0.001
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.002835         0.004600           -0.616           0.538
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.012042         0.004440            2.712           0.007
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.005740         0.008051            0.713           0.476
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.000370         0.009751            0.038           0.970
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation HANG SENG INDEX
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      2.148060         4.536545            0.474           0.636
L1.SET                                     1.060728         0.470050            2.257           0.024
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.041488         0.030850           -1.345           0.179
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.049152         0.030702           -1.601           0.109
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.228562         0.398737            0.573           0.566
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.035900         0.031529           -1.139           0.255
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.120571         0.093349           -1.292           0.196
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.430481         0.090108            4.777           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.196468         0.163377            1.203           0.229
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.029754         0.197874           -0.150           0.880
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Shenzhen Component
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                     -1.422674         3.336114           -0.426           0.670
L1.SET                                     0.108942         0.345669            0.315           0.753
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.020542         0.022687            0.905           0.365
L1.Shenzhen Component                      0.015056         0.022578            0.667           0.505
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.097779         0.293226            0.333           0.739
L1.Nikkei 225                              0.034856         0.023186            1.503           0.133
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.074616         0.068647           -1.087           0.277
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.046945         0.066264            0.708           0.479
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.141525         0.120145           -1.178           0.239
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.080441         0.145514           -0.553           0.580
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation KOSPI Composite Index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.175946         0.327714            0.537           0.591
L1.SET                                     0.102708         0.033956            3.025           0.002
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.005186         0.002229            2.327           0.020
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.007495         0.002218           -3.379           0.001
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.092861         0.028804           -3.224           0.001
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.006635         0.002278           -2.913           0.004
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.008564         0.006743            1.270           0.204
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.032216         0.006509            4.949           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.015287         0.011802            1.295           0.195
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.006635         0.014294            0.464           0.643
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation Nikkei 225
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      3.536974         3.513546            1.007           0.314
L1.SET                                     0.913966         0.364053            2.511           0.012
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                        -0.001551         0.023893           -0.065           0.948
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.006677         0.023779           -0.281           0.779
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.247840         0.308821           -0.803           0.422
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.111879         0.024419           -4.582           0.000
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.035315         0.072298           -0.488           0.625
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.421401         0.069788            6.038           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.276661         0.126535            2.186           0.029
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS          0.051101         0.153253            0.333           0.739
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation TSEC weighted index
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.604963         1.382067            0.438           0.662
L1.SET                                     0.320326         0.143202            2.237           0.025
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.018918         0.009399            2.013           0.044
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.018249         0.009354           -1.951           0.051
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.060581         0.121476            0.499           0.618
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.026834         0.009605           -2.794           0.005
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.047139         0.028439           -1.658           0.097
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.140203         0.027452            5.107           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.083490         0.049773            1.677           0.093
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.037204         0.060283           -0.617           0.537
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation NIFTY 50
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      2.058776         1.193524            1.725           0.085
L1.SET                                     0.013071         0.123666            0.106           0.916
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.011300         0.008116            1.392           0.164
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.023661         0.008078           -2.929           0.003
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                   0.128390         0.104904            1.224           0.221
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.009005         0.008295           -1.086           0.278
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.038565         0.024559            1.570           0.116
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.016076         0.023707            0.678           0.498
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.010175         0.042983           -0.237           0.813
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.044100         0.052059           -0.847           0.397
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation ALL ORDINARIES
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      0.272081         0.779054            0.349           0.727
L1.SET                                     0.210241         0.080721            2.605           0.009
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.000294         0.005298            0.055           0.956
L1.Shenzhen Component                     -0.006947         0.005272           -1.318           0.188
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.057658         0.068474           -0.842           0.400
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.005546         0.005414           -1.024           0.306
L1.TSEC weighted index                    -0.022047         0.016031           -1.375           0.169
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.106002         0.015474            6.850           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                         -0.008525         0.028056           -0.304           0.761
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.054219         0.033981           -1.596           0.111
=====================================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS 
=====================================================================================================
                                        coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                      1.908471         0.519589            3.673           0.000
L1.SET                                     0.045853         0.053837            0.852           0.394
L1.HANG SENG INDEX                         0.000791         0.003533            0.224           0.823
L1.Shenzhen Component                      0.002065         0.003516            0.587           0.557
L1.KOSPI Composite Index                  -0.041316         0.045669           -0.905           0.366
L1.Nikkei 225                             -0.002247         0.003611           -0.622           0.534
L1.TSEC weighted index                     0.010128         0.010692            0.947           0.343
L1.NIFTY 50                                0.047604         0.010320            4.613           0.000
L1.ALL ORDINARIES                          0.052289         0.018712            2.794           0.005
L1.S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS         -0.019578         0.022663           -0.864           0.388
=====================================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                                        SET  HANG SENG INDEX  Shenzhen Component  KOSPI Composite Index  Nikkei 225  TSEC weighted index  NIFTY 50  ALL ORDINARIES  S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS 
SET                                1.000000         0.428393            0.188838               0.352093    0.267006             0.346386  0.391961        0.318317                         0.193057
HANG SENG INDEX                    0.428393         1.000000            0.449699               0.586647    0.452941             0.577646  0.467007        0.555486                         0.271180
Shenzhen Component                 0.188838         0.449699            1.000000               0.242653    0.206872             0.282063  0.184358        0.232658                         0.093193
KOSPI Composite Index              0.352093         0.586647            0.242653               1.000000    0.432472             0.634050  0.380694        0.544058                         0.263592
Nikkei 225                         0.267006         0.452941            0.206872               0.432472    1.000000             0.431251  0.314958        0.489691                         0.327445
TSEC weighted index                0.346386         0.577646            0.282063               0.634050    0.431251             1.000000  0.362378        0.525190                         0.285683
NIFTY 50                           0.391961         0.467007            0.184358               0.380694    0.314958             0.362378  1.000000        0.338021                         0.215104
ALL ORDINARIES                     0.318317         0.555486            0.232658               0.544058    0.489691             0.525190  0.338021        1.000000                         0.444370
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS     0.193057         0.271180            0.093193               0.263592    0.327445             0.285683  0.215104        0.444370                         1.000000


y_fitted = res_ASIA.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_ASIA.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#Europe
X_transform_EU = X_transform_data[['SET','FTSE 100','DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX','CAC 40','ESTX 50 PR.EUR','BEL 20']]
#Lag Order Selection
model_EU = VAR(endog = X_transform_EU)
res_EU = model_EU.select_order(30)
print(res_EU.summary())

mod_EU = VAR(X_transform_EU)
res_EU = mod_EU.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_EU.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

 VAR Order Selection (* highlights the minimums)  
==================================================
       AIC         BIC         FPE         HQIC   
--------------------------------------------------
0        35.32       35.34   2.187e+15       35.33
1       35.21*      35.31*  1.959e+15*      35.25*
2        35.22       35.41   1.979e+15       35.29
3        35.24       35.51   2.009e+15       35.33
4        35.25       35.60   2.031e+15       35.38
5        35.26       35.70   2.053e+15       35.42
6        35.26       35.79   2.062e+15       35.45
7        35.26       35.88   2.067e+15       35.49
8        35.28       35.98   2.098e+15       35.53
9        35.29       36.08   2.128e+15       35.58
10       35.31       36.18   2.162e+15       35.63
11       35.32       36.28   2.194e+15       35.67
12       35.34       36.38   2.227e+15       35.72
13       35.35       36.48   2.248e+15       35.76
14       35.36       36.57   2.272e+15       35.80
15       35.37       36.67   2.298e+15       35.84
16       35.38       36.77   2.329e+15       35.89
17       35.40       36.87   2.364e+15       35.93
18       35.41       36.97   2.389e+15       35.98
19       35.42       37.06   2.421e+15       36.02
20       35.44       37.16   2.453e+15       36.06
21       35.45       37.26   2.480e+15       36.11
22       35.46       37.36   2.512e+15       36.15
23       35.47       37.45   2.529e+15       36.19
24       35.48       37.55   2.573e+15       36.24
25       35.50       37.66   2.615e+15       36.28
26       35.51       37.76   2.655e+15       36.33
27       35.53       37.86   2.694e+15       36.38
28       35.54       37.95   2.729e+15       36.42
29       35.56       38.06   2.782e+15       36.47
30       35.58       38.16   2.826e+15       36.52
--------------------------------------------------

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:32:27
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         6.00000    BIC:                    35.3036
Nobs:                     2465.00    HQIC:                   35.2405
Log likelihood:          -64333.7    FPE:                1.94603e+15
AIC:                      35.2046    Det(Omega_mle):     1.91320e+15
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
===========================================================================================
                              coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                            0.431743         0.222288            1.942           0.052
L1.SET                          -0.021762         0.021294           -1.022           0.307
L1.FTSE 100                      0.027578         0.008346            3.304           0.001
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX        -0.005707         0.006147           -0.929           0.353
L1.CAC 40                        0.038280         0.020772            1.843           0.065
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR               -0.017173         0.026679           -0.644           0.520
L1.BEL 20                       -0.025846         0.020619           -1.253           0.210
===========================================================================================

Results for equation FTSE 100
===========================================================================================
                              coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                            0.785979         1.061978            0.740           0.459
L1.SET                          -0.174196         0.101730           -1.712           0.087
L1.FTSE 100                      0.035219         0.039871            0.883           0.377
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX        -0.004064         0.029367           -0.138           0.890
L1.CAC 40                        0.080016         0.099238            0.806           0.420
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR               -0.068428         0.127459           -0.537           0.591
L1.BEL 20                       -0.071000         0.098509           -0.721           0.471
===========================================================================================

Results for equation DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX
===========================================================================================
                              coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                            2.763091         1.939789            1.424           0.154
L1.SET                          -0.196041         0.185818           -1.055           0.291
L1.FTSE 100                     -0.000663         0.072828           -0.009           0.993
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX        -0.019474         0.053641           -0.363           0.717
L1.CAC 40                        0.118048         0.181266            0.651           0.515
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR               -0.059114         0.232814           -0.254           0.800
L1.BEL 20                       -0.025490         0.179934           -0.142           0.887
===========================================================================================

Results for equation CAC 40
===========================================================================================
                              coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                            0.609525         0.936012            0.651           0.515
L1.SET                          -0.162248         0.089663           -1.810           0.070
L1.FTSE 100                      0.019591         0.035142            0.557           0.577
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX        -0.018805         0.025884           -0.727           0.468
L1.CAC 40                        0.027370         0.087467            0.313           0.754
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR                0.010583         0.112340            0.094           0.925
L1.BEL 20                       -0.027301         0.086824           -0.314           0.753
===========================================================================================

Results for equation ESTX 50 PR.EUR
===========================================================================================
                              coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                            0.139525         0.682770            0.204           0.838
L1.SET                          -0.124088         0.065405           -1.897           0.058
L1.FTSE 100                      0.001911         0.025634            0.075           0.941
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX         0.019272         0.018881            1.021           0.307
L1.CAC 40                        0.183824         0.063802            2.881           0.004
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR               -0.315767         0.081946           -3.853           0.000
L1.BEL 20                        0.008979         0.063334            0.142           0.887
===========================================================================================

Results for equation BEL 20
===========================================================================================
                              coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                            0.623694         0.576702            1.081           0.279
L1.SET                          -0.136869         0.055244           -2.478           0.013
L1.FTSE 100                     -0.003010         0.021652           -0.139           0.889
L1.DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX        -0.003226         0.015948           -0.202           0.840
L1.CAC 40                        0.086913         0.053891            1.613           0.107
L1.ESTX 50 PR.EUR               -0.058331         0.069216           -0.843           0.399
L1.BEL 20                       -0.030828         0.053495           -0.576           0.564
===========================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                              SET  FTSE 100  DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX    CAC 40  ESTX 50 PR.EUR    BEL 20
SET                      1.000000  0.328552               0.308202  0.314491        0.297562  0.314647
FTSE 100                 0.328552  1.000000               0.798139  0.854632        0.832032  0.824372
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX    0.308202  0.798139               1.000000  0.914757        0.919802  0.875283
CAC 40                   0.314491  0.854632               0.914757  1.000000        0.967697  0.917131
ESTX 50 PR.EUR           0.297562  0.832032               0.919802  0.967697        1.000000  0.909669
BEL 20                   0.314647  0.824372               0.875283  0.917131        0.909669  1.000000


y_fitted = res_EU.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_EU.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#North America
X_transform_NA = X_transform_data[['SET','Dow Jones Industrial Average','NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)','Russell 2000'
                                   ,'S&P/TSX Composite index','NASDAQ Composite','IPC MEXICO']]
#Lag Order Selection
model_NA = VAR(endog = X_transform_NA)
res_NA = model_NA.select_order(30)
print(res_NA.summary())

mod_NA = VAR(X_transform_NA)
res_NA = mod_NA.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_NA.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

 VAR Order Selection (* highlights the minimums)  
==================================================
       AIC         BIC         FPE         HQIC   
--------------------------------------------------
0        48.33      48.35*   9.779e+20       48.34
1       48.25*       48.38  9.010e+20*      48.30*
2        48.26       48.51   9.141e+20       48.36
3        48.27       48.64   9.229e+20       48.41
4        48.30       48.78   9.443e+20       48.47
5        48.32       48.92   9.641e+20       48.54
6        48.34       49.06   9.874e+20       48.60
7        48.35       49.19   9.988e+20       48.66
8        48.37       49.31   1.011e+21       48.71
9        48.38       49.45   1.027e+21       48.77
10       48.40       49.58   1.046e+21       48.83
11       48.42       49.72   1.068e+21       48.89
12       48.44       49.85   1.086e+21       48.95
13       48.45       49.98   1.101e+21       49.01
14       48.47       50.12   1.127e+21       49.07
15       48.49       50.26   1.148e+21       49.13
16       48.52       50.40   1.176e+21       49.20
17       48.54       50.54   1.205e+21       49.27
18       48.55       50.67   1.223e+21       49.32
19       48.58       50.81   1.251e+21       49.39
20       48.59       50.94   1.272e+21       49.45
21       48.61       51.07   1.288e+21       49.50
22       48.62       51.20   1.309e+21       49.56
23       48.64       51.34   1.336e+21       49.62
24       48.66       51.48   1.365e+21       49.69
25       48.68       51.62   1.391e+21       49.75
26       48.70       51.75   1.415e+21       49.81
27       48.72       51.88   1.441e+21       49.87
28       48.74       52.02   1.468e+21       49.93
29       48.75       52.15   1.488e+21       49.98
30       48.77       52.28   1.516e+21       50.05
--------------------------------------------------

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:33:03
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         7.00000    BIC:                    48.3661
Nobs:                     2465.00    HQIC:                   48.2821
Log likelihood:          -83876.3    FPE:                8.86753e+20
AIC:                      48.2341    Det(Omega_mle):     8.66866e+20
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   0.396345         0.218113            1.817           0.069
L1.SET                                 -0.044364         0.020468           -2.167           0.030
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.006860         0.006282           -1.092           0.275
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                  0.040381         0.012214            3.306           0.001
L1.Russell 2000                        -0.094122         0.052397           -1.796           0.072
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.011016         0.003937            2.798           0.005
L1.NASDAQ Composite                     0.007891         0.015138            0.521           0.602
L1.IPC MEXICO                           0.000473         0.000870            0.544           0.587
==================================================================================================

Results for equation Dow Jones Industrial Average
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   6.252034         2.344661            2.666           0.008
L1.SET                                 -0.029939         0.220029           -0.136           0.892
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.022532         0.067531           -0.334           0.739
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                 -0.068445         0.131303           -0.521           0.602
L1.Russell 2000                        -0.150917         0.563254           -0.268           0.789
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.084356         0.042317            1.993           0.046
L1.NASDAQ Composite                    -0.141878         0.162730           -0.872           0.383
L1.IPC MEXICO                           0.009269         0.009352            0.991           0.322
==================================================================================================

Results for equation NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   2.436915         1.553172            1.569           0.117
L1.SET                                 -0.211460         0.145754           -1.451           0.147
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.033399         0.044734           -0.747           0.455
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                 -0.009723         0.086979           -0.112           0.911
L1.Russell 2000                        -0.283897         0.373116           -0.761           0.447
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.038906         0.028032            1.388           0.165
L1.NASDAQ Composite                     0.021450         0.107797            0.199           0.842
L1.IPC MEXICO                           0.005251         0.006195            0.848           0.397
==================================================================================================

Results for equation Russell 2000
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   0.396652         0.214199            1.852           0.064
L1.SET                                 -0.023895         0.020101           -1.189           0.235
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.005353         0.006169           -0.868           0.386
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                  0.009687         0.011995            0.808           0.419
L1.Russell 2000                        -0.076682         0.051457           -1.490           0.136
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.001392         0.003866            0.360           0.719
L1.NASDAQ Composite                     0.001439         0.014866            0.097           0.923
L1.IPC MEXICO                          -0.000249         0.000854           -0.291           0.771
==================================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/TSX Composite index
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   1.646660         1.883729            0.874           0.382
L1.SET                                 -0.429583         0.176774           -2.430           0.015
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.094349         0.054255           -1.739           0.082
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                  0.197747         0.105490            1.875           0.061
L1.Russell 2000                        -0.384770         0.452525           -0.850           0.395
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.033656         0.033998            0.990           0.322
L1.NASDAQ Composite                     0.051200         0.130739            0.392           0.695
L1.IPC MEXICO                           0.005279         0.007514            0.703           0.482
==================================================================================================

Results for equation NASDAQ Composite
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   2.105392         0.724434            2.906           0.004
L1.SET                                 -0.048758         0.067983           -0.717           0.473
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.036426         0.020865           -1.746           0.081
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                  0.046555         0.040569            1.148           0.251
L1.Russell 2000                        -0.318833         0.174030           -1.832           0.067
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.017602         0.013075            1.346           0.178
L1.NASDAQ Composite                     0.004072         0.050279            0.081           0.935
L1.IPC MEXICO                           0.004228         0.002890            1.463           0.143
==================================================================================================

Results for equation IPC MEXICO
==================================================================================================
                                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                                   6.763816         6.567381            1.030           0.303
L1.SET                                 -0.536251         0.616301           -0.870           0.384
L1.Dow Jones Industrial Average        -0.287783         0.189154           -1.521           0.128
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)                  0.510150         0.367778            1.387           0.165
L1.Russell 2000                        -2.172241         1.577670           -1.377           0.169
L1.S&P/TSX Composite index              0.147598         0.118530            1.245           0.213
L1.NASDAQ Composite                     0.530407         0.455806            1.164           0.245
L1.IPC MEXICO                           0.018971         0.026196            0.724           0.469
==================================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                                     SET  Dow Jones Industrial Average  NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)  Russell 2000  S&P/TSX Composite index  NASDAQ Composite  IPC MEXICO
SET                             1.000000                      0.203571             0.237370      0.187666                 0.225333          0.198247    0.249505
Dow Jones Industrial Average    0.203571                      1.000000             0.943337      0.834198                 0.698446          0.871403    0.562190
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)             0.237370                      0.943337             1.000000      0.888892                 0.792644          0.870505    0.624600
Russell 2000                    0.187666                      0.834198             0.888892      1.000000                 0.698562          0.882153    0.551154
S&P/TSX Composite index         0.225333                      0.698446             0.792644      0.698562                 1.000000          0.673635    0.538649
NASDAQ Composite                0.198247                      0.871403             0.870505      0.882153                 0.673635          1.000000    0.538072
IPC MEXICO                      0.249505                      0.562190             0.624600      0.551154                 0.538649          0.538072    1.000000


y_fitted = res_NA.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_NA.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#South America
X_transform_SA = X_transform_data[['SET','IBOVESPA','S&P/CLX IPSA','MERVAL']]
#Lag Order Selection
model_SA = VAR(endog = X_transform_SA)
res_SA = model_SA.select_order(30)
print(res_SA.summary())

mod_SA = VAR(X_transform_SA)
res_SA = mod_SA.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_SA.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

 VAR Order Selection (* highlights the minimums)  
==================================================
       AIC         BIC         FPE         HQIC   
--------------------------------------------------
0        34.99       35.00   1.564e+15       34.99
1        34.92      34.97*   1.464e+15      34.94*
2        34.92       35.00   1.461e+15       34.95
3       34.91*       35.03  1.446e+15*       34.95
4        34.92       35.08   1.457e+15       34.97
5        34.92       35.12   1.461e+15       34.99
6        34.92       35.16   1.467e+15       35.01
7        34.92       35.20   1.469e+15       35.02
8        34.93       35.24   1.473e+15       35.04
9        34.93       35.28   1.477e+15       35.06
10       34.93       35.32   1.482e+15       35.07
11       34.94       35.37   1.492e+15       35.09
12       34.95       35.42   1.508e+15       35.12
13       34.95       35.46   1.510e+15       35.13
14       34.96       35.50   1.519e+15       35.15
15       34.96       35.54   1.528e+15       35.17
16       34.97       35.59   1.539e+15       35.19
17       34.98       35.63   1.550e+15       35.22
18       34.98       35.67   1.554e+15       35.23
19       34.98       35.71   1.557e+15       35.25
20       34.98       35.75   1.557e+15       35.26
21       34.99       35.80   1.571e+15       35.28
22       35.00       35.84   1.582e+15       35.31
23       34.99       35.88   1.575e+15       35.31
24       35.00       35.92   1.585e+15       35.33
25       35.00       35.97   1.593e+15       35.35
26       35.01       36.01   1.604e+15       35.37
27       35.01       36.05   1.609e+15       35.39
28       35.01       36.09   1.609e+15       35.41
29       35.02       36.14   1.623e+15       35.43
30       35.03       36.18   1.633e+15       35.45
--------------------------------------------------

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:33:16
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         4.00000    BIC:                    35.0186
Nobs:                     2463.00    HQIC:                   34.9405
Log likelihood:          -56901.7    FPE:                1.42925e+15
AIC:                      34.8959    Det(Omega_mle):     1.39947e+15
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
==================================================================================
                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                   0.358024         0.219477            1.631           0.103
L1.SET                 -0.053586         0.020848           -2.570           0.010
L1.IBOVESPA             0.002269         0.000353            6.432           0.000
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.028990         0.007610            3.809           0.000
L1.MERVAL               0.002783         0.001299            2.143           0.032
L2.SET                 -0.038009         0.020801           -1.827           0.068
L2.IBOVESPA             0.000423         0.000358            1.182           0.237
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.020269         0.007650            2.650           0.008
L2.MERVAL               0.000653         0.001298            0.503           0.615
L3.SET                 -0.026746         0.020436           -1.309           0.191
L3.IBOVESPA             0.000437         0.000356            1.227           0.220
L3.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.006980         0.007592            0.919           0.358
L3.MERVAL               0.001218         0.001315            0.926           0.355
==================================================================================

Results for equation IBOVESPA
==================================================================================
                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                   3.471087        14.949442            0.232           0.816
L1.SET                 -0.740247         1.420048           -0.521           0.602
L1.IBOVESPA            -0.034736         0.024032           -1.445           0.148
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.238356         0.518345            0.460           0.646
L1.MERVAL               0.117308         0.088476            1.326           0.185
L2.SET                  1.538007         1.416836            1.086           0.278
L2.IBOVESPA             0.006383         0.024381            0.262           0.793
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA        -0.045080         0.521059           -0.087           0.931
L2.MERVAL              -0.008401         0.088445           -0.095           0.924
L3.SET                  1.216773         1.391999            0.874           0.382
L3.IBOVESPA            -0.016909         0.024245           -0.697           0.486
L3.S&P/CLX IPSA        -0.588958         0.517139           -1.139           0.255
L3.MERVAL              -0.003729         0.089596           -0.042           0.967
==================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/CLX IPSA
==================================================================================
                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                   0.710797         0.662738            1.073           0.283
L1.SET                 -0.052614         0.062954           -0.836           0.403
L1.IBOVESPA             0.004545         0.001065            4.266           0.000
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.090747         0.022979            3.949           0.000
L1.MERVAL               0.005560         0.003922            1.418           0.156
L2.SET                  0.033921         0.062811            0.540           0.589
L2.IBOVESPA             0.001337         0.001081            1.237           0.216
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA        -0.033034         0.023100           -1.430           0.153
L2.MERVAL              -0.001212         0.003921           -0.309           0.757
L3.SET                 -0.052105         0.061710           -0.844           0.398
L3.IBOVESPA             0.000381         0.001075            0.354           0.723
L3.S&P/CLX IPSA        -0.059629         0.022926           -2.601           0.009
L3.MERVAL               0.006635         0.003972            1.670           0.095
==================================================================================

Results for equation MERVAL
==================================================================================
                     coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                  10.524319         3.718745            2.830           0.005
L1.SET                 -0.257250         0.353244           -0.728           0.466
L1.IBOVESPA            -0.000205         0.005978           -0.034           0.973
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.056483         0.128941            0.438           0.661
L1.MERVAL               0.053278         0.022009            2.421           0.015
L2.SET                  0.304418         0.352445            0.864           0.388
L2.IBOVESPA             0.000795         0.006065            0.131           0.896
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA         0.021372         0.129616            0.165           0.869
L2.MERVAL              -0.071875         0.022001           -3.267           0.001
L3.SET                  0.381482         0.346267            1.102           0.271
L3.IBOVESPA            -0.003351         0.006031           -0.556           0.578
L3.S&P/CLX IPSA        -0.073234         0.128641           -0.569           0.569
L3.MERVAL               0.112083         0.022287            5.029           0.000
==================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                     SET  IBOVESPA  S&P/CLX IPSA    MERVAL
SET             1.000000  0.174053      0.239244  0.112955
IBOVESPA        0.174053  1.000000      0.446446  0.404384
S&P/CLX IPSA    0.239244  0.446446      1.000000  0.240300
MERVAL          0.112955  0.404384      0.240300  1.000000


y_fitted = res_SA.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_SA.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#Try only t-test <-2 and >2
X_transform_select = X_transform_data[['SET','STI Index','Composite Index','Shenzhen Component','Nikkei 225','NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)','IBOVESPA','S&P/CLX IPSA']]
X_transform_select

#Lag Order Selection
model_select = VAR(endog = X_transform_select)
res_select = model_select.select_order(30)
res_select.summary()

#Model
mod_select = VAR(X_transform_select)
res_select = mod_select.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_select.summary())

C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'
C:\Users\Anawat\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\statsmodels\tsa\base\tsa_model.py:581: ValueWarning: A date index has been provided, but it has no associated frequency information and so will be ignored when e.g. forecasting.
  warnings.warn('A date index has been provided, but it has no'

  Summary of Regression Results   
==================================
Model:                         VAR
Method:                        OLS
Date:           Thu, 06, May, 2021
Time:                     18:33:49
--------------------------------------------------------------------
No. of Equations:         8.00000    BIC:                    65.9228
Nobs:                     2464.00    HQIC:                   65.7187
Log likelihood:          -108656.    FPE:                3.09496e+28
AIC:                      65.6022    Det(Omega_mle):     2.92932e+28
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Results for equation SET
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                          0.321214         0.214232            1.499           0.134
L1.SET                        -0.042167         0.022882           -1.843           0.065
L1.STI Index                  -0.029524         0.013575           -2.175           0.030
L1.Composite Index             0.013025         0.006471            2.013           0.044
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.004890         0.001363           -3.589           0.000
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.006980         0.001443           -4.838           0.000
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.030004         0.003696            8.117           0.000
L1.IBOVESPA                    0.001310         0.000370            3.542           0.000
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.015646         0.007859            1.991           0.047
L2.SET                        -0.039862         0.022797           -1.749           0.080
L2.STI Index                  -0.005468         0.013401           -0.408           0.683
L2.Composite Index             0.010791         0.006433            1.677           0.093
L2.Shenzhen Component          0.000186         0.001368            0.136           0.892
L2.Nikkei 225                 -0.000588         0.001398           -0.421           0.674
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.015111         0.003957            3.819           0.000
L2.IBOVESPA                    0.000049         0.000373            0.132           0.895
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.021860         0.007810            2.799           0.005
=========================================================================================

Results for equation STI Index
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                         -0.133620         0.394220           -0.339           0.735
L1.SET                         0.021152         0.042107            0.502           0.615
L1.STI Index                  -0.101572         0.024979           -4.066           0.000
L1.Composite Index            -0.007761         0.011908           -0.652           0.515
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.009963         0.002507           -3.974           0.000
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.006835         0.002655           -2.574           0.010
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.094091         0.006802           13.833           0.000
L1.IBOVESPA                    0.002588         0.000681            3.803           0.000
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.020213         0.014462            1.398           0.162
L2.SET                         0.063763         0.041949            1.520           0.129
L2.STI Index                  -0.032032         0.024660           -1.299           0.194
L2.Composite Index             0.013961         0.011837            1.179           0.238
L2.Shenzhen Component         -0.001238         0.002517           -0.492           0.623
L2.Nikkei 225                 -0.002280         0.002572           -0.886           0.375
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.026122         0.007281            3.587           0.000
L2.IBOVESPA                    0.000170         0.000686            0.248           0.804
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.036798         0.014371            2.560           0.010
=========================================================================================

Results for equation Composite Index
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                          1.224000         0.772577            1.584           0.113
L1.SET                         0.077585         0.082519            0.940           0.347
L1.STI Index                  -0.083495         0.048953           -1.706           0.088
L1.Composite Index             0.005048         0.023337            0.216           0.829
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.014694         0.004914           -2.990           0.003
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.025426         0.005203           -4.887           0.000
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.151848         0.013330           11.391           0.000
L1.IBOVESPA                    0.003219         0.001334            2.414           0.016
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.074761         0.028342            2.638           0.008
L2.SET                         0.137545         0.082211            1.673           0.094
L2.STI Index                   0.095567         0.048327            1.977           0.048
L2.Composite Index            -0.022496         0.023198           -0.970           0.332
L2.Shenzhen Component         -0.009325         0.004932           -1.891           0.059
L2.Nikkei 225                 -0.005512         0.005040           -1.094           0.274
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.004878         0.014270            0.342           0.732
L2.IBOVESPA                    0.000474         0.001344            0.353           0.724
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA               -0.016672         0.028164           -0.592           0.554
=========================================================================================

Results for equation Shenzhen Component
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                         -2.217163         3.300968           -0.672           0.502
L1.SET                        -0.246811         0.352578           -0.700           0.484
L1.STI Index                  -0.008235         0.209161           -0.039           0.969
L1.Composite Index            -0.160104         0.099711           -1.606           0.108
L1.Shenzhen Component          0.007180         0.020994            0.342           0.732
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.002286         0.022230           -0.103           0.918
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.248233         0.056955            4.358           0.000
L1.IBOVESPA                    0.006369         0.005698            1.118           0.264
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.168118         0.121097            1.388           0.165
L2.SET                         0.338037         0.351259            0.962           0.336
L2.STI Index                  -0.196512         0.206486           -0.952           0.341
L2.Composite Index             0.011139         0.099118            0.112           0.911
L2.Shenzhen Component         -0.052734         0.021073           -2.502           0.012
L2.Nikkei 225                  0.008270         0.021534            0.384           0.701
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.122160         0.060970            2.004           0.045
L2.IBOVESPA                   -0.007287         0.005741           -1.269           0.204
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.129704         0.120338            1.078           0.281
=========================================================================================

Results for equation Nikkei 225
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                          2.228983         3.250524            0.686           0.493
L1.SET                         0.405489         0.347190            1.168           0.243
L1.STI Index                   0.255756         0.205965            1.242           0.214
L1.Composite Index            -0.120054         0.098187           -1.223           0.221
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.030210         0.020673           -1.461           0.144
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.147346         0.021890           -6.731           0.000
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         1.013616         0.056085           18.073           0.000
L1.IBOVESPA                   -0.011445         0.005611           -2.040           0.041
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA               -0.028053         0.119247           -0.235           0.814
L2.SET                         0.420337         0.345891            1.215           0.224
L2.STI Index                  -0.062357         0.203331           -0.307           0.759
L2.Composite Index            -0.000359         0.097604           -0.004           0.997
L2.Shenzhen Component         -0.033048         0.020751           -1.593           0.111
L2.Nikkei 225                  0.000280         0.021205            0.013           0.989
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.180409         0.060038            3.005           0.003
L2.IBOVESPA                   -0.006849         0.005653           -1.212           0.226
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.107490         0.118499            0.907           0.364
=========================================================================================

Results for equation NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                          2.304950         1.553537            1.484           0.138
L1.SET                        -0.259275         0.165934           -1.563           0.118
L1.STI Index                   0.040711         0.098438            0.414           0.679
L1.Composite Index             0.030575         0.046927            0.652           0.515
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.013126         0.009880           -1.329           0.184
L1.Nikkei 225                  0.009372         0.010462            0.896           0.370
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)        -0.049226         0.026805           -1.836           0.066
L1.IBOVESPA                    0.004541         0.002682            1.693           0.090
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA               -0.063204         0.056992           -1.109           0.267
L2.SET                         0.109147         0.165313            0.660           0.509
L2.STI Index                  -0.027171         0.097179           -0.280           0.780
L2.Composite Index            -0.053514         0.046648           -1.147           0.251
L2.Shenzhen Component         -0.007805         0.009917           -0.787           0.431
L2.Nikkei 225                 -0.004063         0.010134           -0.401           0.688
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)        -0.005236         0.028694           -0.182           0.855
L2.IBOVESPA                    0.001853         0.002702            0.686           0.493
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.048817         0.056635            0.862           0.389
=========================================================================================

Results for equation IBOVESPA
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                          4.101881        14.878105            0.276           0.783
L1.SET                        -0.659355         1.589136           -0.415           0.678
L1.STI Index                  -0.226200         0.942731           -0.240           0.810
L1.Composite Index            -0.043297         0.449416           -0.096           0.923
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.075121         0.094624           -0.794           0.427
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.083993         0.100194           -0.838           0.402
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.453117         0.256709            1.765           0.078
L1.IBOVESPA                   -0.043384         0.025684           -1.689           0.091
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.150792         0.545809            0.276           0.782
L2.SET                         0.811086         1.583193            0.512           0.608
L2.STI Index                   0.909529         0.930674            0.977           0.328
L2.Composite Index            -0.249620         0.446746           -0.559           0.576
L2.Shenzhen Component         -0.051397         0.094979           -0.541           0.588
L2.Nikkei 225                  0.012110         0.097057            0.125           0.901
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.207470         0.274804            0.755           0.450
L2.IBOVESPA                    0.003458         0.025875            0.134           0.894
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA               -0.187931         0.542385           -0.346           0.729
=========================================================================================

Results for equation S&P/CLX IPSA
=========================================================================================
                            coefficient       std. error           t-stat            prob
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
const                          0.629942         0.656310            0.960           0.337
L1.SET                        -0.054951         0.070101           -0.784           0.433
L1.STI Index                  -0.121739         0.041586           -2.927           0.003
L1.Composite Index             0.064012         0.019825            3.229           0.001
L1.Shenzhen Component         -0.011905         0.004174           -2.852           0.004
L1.Nikkei 225                 -0.007580         0.004420           -1.715           0.086
L1.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.038097         0.011324            3.364           0.001
L1.IBOVESPA                    0.003716         0.001133            3.280           0.001
L1.S&P/CLX IPSA                0.077499         0.024077            3.219           0.001
L2.SET                         0.026445         0.069839            0.379           0.705
L2.STI Index                  -0.016161         0.041054           -0.394           0.694
L2.Composite Index             0.005918         0.019707            0.300           0.764
L2.Shenzhen Component          0.001551         0.004190            0.370           0.711
L2.Nikkei 225                 -0.003059         0.004281           -0.715           0.475
L2.NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)         0.024106         0.012122            1.989           0.047
L2.IBOVESPA                    0.000902         0.001141            0.791           0.429
L2.S&P/CLX IPSA               -0.039068         0.023926           -1.633           0.102
=========================================================================================

Correlation matrix of residuals
                            SET  STI Index  Composite Index  Shenzhen Component  Nikkei 225  NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)  IBOVESPA  S&P/CLX IPSA
SET                    1.000000   0.390513         0.395012            0.159000    0.200853             0.243404  0.168544      0.223186
STI Index              0.390513   1.000000         0.422152            0.245147    0.356406             0.348887  0.250367      0.283163
Composite Index        0.395012   0.422152         1.000000            0.163295    0.191981             0.195581  0.175833      0.263334
Shenzhen Component     0.159000   0.245147         0.163295            1.000000    0.165296             0.142169  0.117262      0.116662
Nikkei 225             0.200853   0.356406         0.191981            0.165296    1.000000             0.218226  0.098886      0.119350
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)    0.243404   0.348887         0.195581            0.142169    0.218226             1.000000  0.582842      0.470261
IBOVESPA               0.168544   0.250367         0.175833            0.117262    0.098886             0.582842  1.000000      0.446622
S&P/CLX IPSA           0.223186   0.283163         0.263334            0.116662    0.119350             0.470261  0.446622      1.000000


y_fitted = res_select.fittedvalues
plt.figure(figsize = (15,5))
plt.plot(res_select.resid, label='resid')
plt.plot(y_fitted, label='VAR prediction')
plt.xlabel('Date')
plt.xticks(rotation=45)
plt.ylabel('Residuals')
plt.grid(True)


#Commodity
df_commodity = df.loc[:,['SET','Gold Jun 21','Crude Oil May 21','Bitcoin USD']]
#Split Training Data(70%)/Validation Data(30%)
n_obs = 2467 #For traning data 
X_train_com = df_commodity[0:n_obs]
X_validation_com = df_commodity[n_obs:]
print(X_train_com.shape,X_validation_com.shape)
      
#Transformation
X_transform_com_data = X_train_com.diff().dropna()
X_transform_com_data.head()
X_transform_com_data.describe()
X_transform_com_data.plot()

print(grangers_causality_matrix(X_transform_com_data, variables = X_transform_com_data.columns))

#Lag Order Selection
model_com = VAR(endog = X_transform_com_data)
res_com = model_com.select_order(30)
print(res_com.summary())

mod_com = VAR(X_transform_com_data)
res_com = mod_com.fit(maxlags=30, ic='aic')
print(res_com.summary())

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
KeyError                                  Traceback (most recent call last)
<ipython-input-42-117eb9302071> in <module>
      1 #Commodity
----> 2 df_commodity = df.loc[:,['SET','Gold Jun 21','Crude Oil May 21','Bitcoin USD']]
      3 #Split Training Data(70%)/Validation Data(30%)
      4 n_obs = 2467 #For traning data
      5 X_train_com = df_commodity[0:n_obs]

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in __getitem__(self, key)
    887                     # AttributeError for IntervalTree get_value
    888                     return self.obj._get_value(*key, takeable=self._takeable)
--> 889             return self._getitem_tuple(key)
    890         else:
    891             # we by definition only have the 0th axis

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_tuple(self, tup)
   1067             return self._multi_take(tup)
   1068 
-> 1069         return self._getitem_tuple_same_dim(tup)
   1070 
   1071     def _get_label(self, label, axis: int):

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_tuple_same_dim(self, tup)
    773                 continue
    774 
--> 775             retval = getattr(retval, self.name)._getitem_axis(key, axis=i)
    776             # We should never have retval.ndim < self.ndim, as that should
    777             #  be handled by the _getitem_lowerdim call above.

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_axis(self, key, axis)
   1111                     raise ValueError("Cannot index with multidimensional key")
   1112 
-> 1113                 return self._getitem_iterable(key, axis=axis)
   1114 
   1115             # nested tuple slicing

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _getitem_iterable(self, key, axis)
   1051 
   1052         # A collection of keys
-> 1053         keyarr, indexer = self._get_listlike_indexer(key, axis, raise_missing=False)
   1054         return self.obj._reindex_with_indexers(
   1055             {axis: [keyarr, indexer]}, copy=True, allow_dups=True

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _get_listlike_indexer(self, key, axis, raise_missing)
   1264             keyarr, indexer, new_indexer = ax._reindex_non_unique(keyarr)
   1265 
-> 1266         self._validate_read_indexer(keyarr, indexer, axis, raise_missing=raise_missing)
   1267         return keyarr, indexer
   1268 

~\Anaconda3\envs\P and R\lib\site-packages\pandas\core\indexing.py in _validate_read_indexer(self, key, indexer, axis, raise_missing)
   1319 
   1320             with option_context("display.max_seq_items", 10, "display.width", 80):
-> 1321                 raise KeyError(
   1322                     "Passing list-likes to .loc or [] with any missing labels "
   1323                     "is no longer supported. "

KeyError: "Passing list-likes to .loc or [] with any missing labels is no longer supported. The following labels were missing: Index(['Crude Oil May 21'], dtype='object'). See https://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/user_guide/indexing.html#deprecate-loc-reindex-listlike"


#Prediction
# Get the lag order
lag_order = res_world.k_ar
print(lag_order)

# Input data for forecasting
input_data = X_transform_data.values[-lag_order:]
print(input_data)

# Split Training Data(70%)/Validation Data(30%)
# n_obs = 2467 #For traning data 
# X_train = df_stock[0:n_obs]
# X_validation = df_stock[n_obs:]
# print(X_train.shape,X_validation.shape)

# forecasting
pred = res_world.forecast(y=input_data, steps=1058)
pred = (pd.DataFrame(pred ,index = X_validation.index,columns=X_validation.columns + '_pred'))
pred

1
[[-2.99000000e+00  2.89500000e+01 -2.26098633e+01  2.42301025e+01
   5.63261719e+01  1.17109375e+02 -2.72220703e+02 -1.30639648e+02
  -5.67500000e+01  3.51289062e+01  5.12998047e+01 -4.70996094e+01
   1.47540039e+02 -2.15498047e+01 -1.94199219e+01 -5.82705078e+01
   7.99926758e-01 -3.33007812e+01 -6.38999023e+01  1.38000000e+02
   1.97769531e+02  9.40898438e+01  5.96000977e+01  9.53098145e+01
  -1.12700000e+03 -3.28492188e+02  5.33300781e+01  2.55078125e+00]]


# inverting transformation
def invert_transformation(X_train, pred):
    forecast = pred.copy()
    columns = X_train.columns
    for col in columns:
        forecast[str(col)+'_pred'] = X_train[col].iloc[-1] + forecast[str(col)+'_pred'].cumsum()
    return forecast

output = invert_transformation(X_validation, pred)

# combining predicted and real data set
combine = pd.concat([output['SET_pred'], X_validation['SET']], axis=1)
combine['accuracy'] = round(combine.apply(lambda row: row.SET_pred /row.SET *100, axis = 1),2)
combine['accuracy'] = pd.Series(["{0:.2f}%".format(val) for val in combine['accuracy']],index = combine.index)
combine = combine.round(decimals=2)
combine = combine.reset_index()
combine = combine.sort_values(by='Date', ascending=True)
combine


df = combine[['SET_pred','SET']]
df.index = combine['Date']
df.plot()

<AxesSubplot:xlabel='Date'>


from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error
from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
import math
#Forecast bias
forecast_errors = [combine['SET'][i]- combine['SET_pred'][i] for i in range(len(combine['SET']))]
bias = sum(forecast_errors) * 1.0/len(combine['SET'])
print('Bias: %f' % bias)
print('Mean absolute error:', mean_absolute_error(combine['SET'].values, combine['SET_pred'].values))
print('Mean squared error:', mean_squared_error(combine['SET'].values, combine['SET_pred'].values))
print('Root mean squared error:', math.sqrt(mean_squared_error(combine['SET'].values, combine['SET_pred'].values)))

Bias: -110.831985
Mean absolute error: 243.58474480151227
Mean squared error: 100603.20918374292
Root mean squared error: 317.18008951342284


lag_order = res_ASEAN.k_ar
# forecast 8 periods foreward
res_ASEAN.forecast(X_transform_ASEAN.values[-lag_order:],8)

array([[-8.25905450e-01, -2.22381381e+00, -8.67043845e+00,
        -7.80983773e-01, -2.63648185e+00, -1.51251957e+01],
       [ 6.32287515e-01, -2.20746348e+00,  7.53731200e+00,
        -3.74517320e-02,  1.23516946e+01, -1.56731678e+01],
       [ 8.07328225e-01,  4.54349579e-01, -2.48001323e+00,
        -8.34641775e-01, -1.73694327e+01, -1.54826534e+00],
       [ 2.67776060e-01,  2.29891374e-01, -4.93729773e-02,
         3.63431765e-01,  2.32213117e+00,  3.45749144e+00],
       [-1.02050410e-02,  4.20359568e-02, -1.34817207e-01,
         2.38813580e-01,  2.28762972e+00,  3.71315077e+00],
       [ 4.55073159e-01,  1.64292281e-01,  5.01400834e-01,
         1.40059400e-01,  3.22057830e+00,  1.26422669e-01],
       [ 5.03182412e-01,  1.89013940e-01,  2.00070893e-01,
         2.50853218e-01,  1.51259369e+00,  2.57835441e+00],
       [ 4.54596947e-01,  2.14965944e-01,  1.68132680e-01,
         2.47850511e-01,  1.46003694e+00,  2.49968990e+00]])


res_ASEAN.plot_forecast(5)


#Impulse Response Function
irf = res_ASEAN.irf(10)
irf.plot(orth=False,figsize = (20,10))


irf = res_NA.irf(10)
irf.plot(orth=False,figsize = (30,20))

	Open	High	Low	Close	Volume	Dividends	Stock Splits
Date
2009-12-31	10548.509766	10555.009766	10423.129883	10428.049805	1379400	0	0
2010-01-04	10430.690430	10604.969727	10430.690430	10583.959961	1797800	0	0
2010-01-05	10584.559570	10584.559570	10522.519531	10572.019531	1885400	0	0
2010-01-06	10564.719727	10594.990234	10546.549805	10573.679688	1860400	0	0
2010-01-07	10571.110352	10612.370117	10505.209961	10606.860352	2173900	0	0

	SET	VNI	STI Index	FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI	Composite Index	PSEi INDEX	HANG SENG INDEX	Shenzhen Component	KOSPI Composite Index	Nikkei 225	ALL ORDINARIES	S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS	TSEC weighted index	NIFTY 50	Dow Jones Industrial Average	NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)	Russell 2000	S&P/TSX Composite index	NASDAQ Composite	FTSE 100	DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX	CAC 40	ESTX 50 PR.EUR	BEL 20	IBOVESPA	IPC MEXICO	S&P/CLX IPSA	MERVAL
count	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000	3525.000000
mean	1412.059186	685.602247	3082.032875	1654.265137	5002.882500	6614.645471	24198.567828	10382.395802	2071.614778	17145.704310	5511.229104	6782.383392	9438.908977	8390.339593	19180.741413	10648.968089	1212.792838	14430.181933	5538.496569	6563.681216	10138.603681	4574.475479	3119.117354	3249.439944	69105.702411	42428.539184	4522.872113	17679.435649
std	255.605990	213.776846	257.393960	140.636756	963.989215	1439.266634	3154.574919	1811.059396	210.597514	5000.478310	728.352758	2744.411453	1497.979691	2327.060126	5595.237493	1969.718679	318.965648	1631.540464	2424.766373	703.135040	2365.334144	746.535898	394.031386	566.942050	19219.834856	4812.958395	607.616075	14088.266851
min	685.890000	336.730000	2233.479980	1219.719971	2475.475586	2796.890869	16250.269531	6998.111816	1457.640015	8160.009766	3927.600098	2933.820068	6633.299316	4544.200195	9686.480469	6434.810059	586.489990	11092.500000	2091.790039	4805.799805	5072.330078	2781.679932	1995.010010	1916.260010	37497.000000	30368.080078	3391.310059	2061.070068
25%	1282.680000	505.120000	2880.760010	1575.010010	4357.973633	5841.377930	21926.880859	9167.650391	1947.670044	13485.139648	4981.899902	4473.379883	8280.219727	5987.700195	14897.549805	9187.790039	968.159973	12925.099609	3409.169922	5963.600098	8057.750000	4013.120117	2855.370117	2701.500000	54110.000000	39066.011719	3951.439941	3523.590088
50%	1479.070000	611.550000	3136.260010	1665.709961	5068.430664	7101.723633	23678.410156	10313.454102	2028.989990	18264.789062	5498.500000	6418.129883	9206.528320	8342.150391	17946.679688	10835.900391	1210.140015	14673.500000	5032.750000	6627.200195	10598.929688	4549.560059	3165.199951	3420.050049	63761.000000	43179.851562	4422.359863	12899.459961
75%	1590.130000	908.180000	3267.479980	1766.829956	5832.311035	7750.117188	26521.849609	11324.632812	2170.250000	21382.619141	6030.299805	8806.040039	10558.290039	10526.750000	24713.980469	12402.740234	1500.699951	15668.900391	7354.339844	7198.700195	12222.389648	5206.220215	3444.149902	3708.659912	80963.000000	45563.179688	5058.879883	29883.269531
max	1838.960000	1204.330000	3615.280029	1895.180054	6689.287109	9056.291016	33154.121094	18098.068359	2873.469971	27568.150391	7255.200195	13246.769531	14687.700195	13981.950195	30409.560547	14516.730469	2007.099976	17944.099609	12899.419922	7877.500000	13790.290039	6111.240234	3865.179932	4198.310059	119528.000000	51713.378906	5880.470215	55427.261719

	SET	VNI	STI Index	FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI	Composite Index	PSEi INDEX	HANG SENG INDEX	Shenzhen Component	KOSPI Composite Index	Nikkei 225	ALL ORDINARIES	S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS	TSEC weighted index	NIFTY 50	Dow Jones Industrial Average	NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)	Russell 2000	S&P/TSX Composite index	NASDAQ Composite	FTSE 100	DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX	CAC 40	ESTX 50 PR.EUR	BEL 20	IBOVESPA	IPC MEXICO	S&P/CLX IPSA	MERVAL
SET	1.000000	0.678796	0.579589	0.765398	0.930763	0.949605	0.726527	-0.250413	0.638743	0.745891	0.721104	0.590416	0.540782	0.713253	0.713417	0.817057	0.805186	0.729641	0.556123	0.892773	0.800119	0.740441	0.682687	0.778283	0.282710	0.851612	0.425375	0.547686
VNI	0.678796	1.000000	0.223251	0.224973	0.833706	0.648957	0.833698	0.004059	0.713958	0.883332	0.889763	0.896249	0.867493	0.934390	0.941056	0.900827	0.912509	0.855117	0.877600	0.701510	0.847282	0.867911	0.711546	0.767725	0.783535	0.471627	0.769528	0.916633
STI Index	0.579589	0.223251	1.000000	0.656062	0.454890	0.480873	0.617234	-0.146534	0.368558	0.197921	0.308117	-0.047354	0.115254	0.184893	0.133971	0.293905	0.265511	0.321612	-0.056897	0.656492	0.275406	0.379804	0.474652	0.379616	0.025887	0.512257	0.237185	-0.027157
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI	0.765398	0.224973	0.656062	1.000000	0.586250	0.725268	0.423393	-0.314384	0.468035	0.371315	0.325498	0.103580	0.170389	0.268056	0.261689	0.457218	0.439266	0.378815	0.123902	0.674271	0.465143	0.384699	0.464351	0.499997	-0.202773	0.756679	0.010240	0.075394
Composite Index	0.930763	0.833706	0.454890	0.586250	1.000000	0.914346	0.801098	-0.156089	0.710760	0.842663	0.847835	0.775770	0.722529	0.872027	0.867009	0.913948	0.905004	0.850075	0.735472	0.877640	0.879475	0.840650	0.732157	0.824814	0.533796	0.753600	0.597018	0.748854
PSEi INDEX	0.949605	0.648957	0.480873	0.725268	0.914346	1.000000	0.662644	-0.137443	0.599712	0.785313	0.732631	0.616157	0.536497	0.734078	0.707568	0.822616	0.801437	0.722809	0.569709	0.857845	0.838250	0.769850	0.735818	0.850925	0.224667	0.866538	0.311173	0.549806
HANG SENG INDEX	0.726527	0.833698	0.617234	0.423393	0.801098	0.662644	1.000000	0.118478	0.774764	0.765421	0.802615	0.660414	0.760699	0.793711	0.769537	0.808240	0.803244	0.807991	0.663970	0.801807	0.779915	0.838252	0.784281	0.756709	0.627924	0.554397	0.750542	0.703757
Shenzhen Component	-0.250413	0.004059	-0.146534	-0.314384	-0.156089	-0.137443	0.118478	1.000000	0.201384	0.136688	0.066949	0.091071	0.258026	0.089191	0.024877	0.010132	0.011570	0.103521	0.158902	-0.171261	0.121784	0.130258	0.226027	0.156673	0.109271	-0.151050	0.064019	0.135765
KOSPI Composite Index	0.638743	0.713958	0.368558	0.468035	0.710760	0.599712	0.774764	0.201384	1.000000	0.703060	0.668694	0.621528	0.781510	0.716922	0.714309	0.752169	0.775535	0.746649	0.685419	0.660027	0.759520	0.707588	0.656835	0.682131	0.506827	0.615910	0.694757	0.687437
Nikkei 225	0.745891	0.883332	0.197921	0.371315	0.842663	0.785313	0.765421	0.136688	0.703060	1.000000	0.918797	0.900342	0.865482	0.944977	0.938841	0.960545	0.961338	0.887785	0.900768	0.743441	0.967325	0.936241	0.858848	0.900803	0.582278	0.590715	0.527461	0.874725
ALL ORDINARIES	0.721104	0.889763	0.308117	0.325498	0.847835	0.732631	0.802615	0.066949	0.668694	0.918797	1.000000	0.896251	0.889898	0.941006	0.930827	0.956646	0.939645	0.951447	0.870553	0.795944	0.916446	0.951616	0.866980	0.845549	0.721202	0.531847	0.576581	0.862587
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS	0.590416	0.896249	-0.047354	0.103580	0.775770	0.616157	0.660414	0.091071	0.621528	0.900342	0.896251	1.000000	0.912758	0.947996	0.972963	0.907720	0.904983	0.855302	0.979552	0.571078	0.867327	0.830867	0.665927	0.718244	0.788127	0.376573	0.641332	0.969789
TSEC weighted index	0.540782	0.867493	0.115254	0.170389	0.722529	0.536497	0.760699	0.258026	0.781510	0.865482	0.889898	0.912758	1.000000	0.914836	0.917941	0.889640	0.886336	0.904244	0.945746	0.586803	0.853723	0.837630	0.740002	0.712703	0.795125	0.355968	0.698466	0.929105
NIFTY 50	0.713253	0.934390	0.184893	0.268056	0.872027	0.734078	0.793711	0.089191	0.716922	0.944977	0.941006	0.947996	0.914836	1.000000	0.972543	0.957497	0.956418	0.924175	0.933542	0.718494	0.925883	0.915865	0.793679	0.837554	0.744325	0.533736	0.668409	0.936350
Dow Jones Industrial Average	0.713417	0.941056	0.133971	0.261689	0.867009	0.707568	0.769537	0.024877	0.714309	0.938841	0.930827	0.972963	0.917941	0.972543	1.000000	0.964870	0.964519	0.907297	0.963451	0.701424	0.917777	0.888613	0.737684	0.783063	0.770895	0.495244	0.690586	0.959419
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)	0.817057	0.900827	0.293905	0.457218	0.913948	0.822616	0.808240	0.010132	0.752169	0.960545	0.956646	0.907720	0.889640	0.957497	0.964870	1.000000	0.988640	0.950604	0.901132	0.819623	0.965045	0.937558	0.844744	0.874851	0.643134	0.639807	0.584672	0.879689
Russell 2000	0.805186	0.912509	0.265511	0.439266	0.905004	0.801437	0.803244	0.011570	0.775535	0.961338	0.939645	0.904983	0.886336	0.956418	0.964519	0.988640	1.000000	0.936176	0.905901	0.813391	0.960181	0.927040	0.819500	0.865611	0.640475	0.644582	0.611575	0.886647
S&P/TSX Composite index	0.729641	0.855117	0.321612	0.378815	0.850075	0.722809	0.807991	0.103521	0.746649	0.887785	0.951447	0.855302	0.904244	0.924175	0.907297	0.950604	0.936176	1.000000	0.853574	0.803493	0.916762	0.919350	0.854173	0.839443	0.680719	0.571499	0.604146	0.841768
NASDAQ Composite	0.556123	0.877600	-0.056897	0.123902	0.735472	0.569709	0.663970	0.158902	0.685419	0.900768	0.870553	0.979552	0.945746	0.933542	0.963451	0.901132	0.905901	0.853574	1.000000	0.528797	0.862456	0.807150	0.662099	0.690204	0.776643	0.346934	0.642698	0.973648
FTSE 100	0.892773	0.701510	0.656492	0.674271	0.877640	0.857845	0.801807	-0.171261	0.660027	0.743441	0.795944	0.571078	0.586803	0.718494	0.701424	0.819623	0.813391	0.803493	0.528797	1.000000	0.819850	0.844900	0.817919	0.843177	0.363324	0.822144	0.468545	0.538639
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX	0.800119	0.847282	0.275406	0.465143	0.879475	0.838250	0.779915	0.121784	0.759520	0.967325	0.916446	0.867327	0.853723	0.925883	0.917777	0.965045	0.960181	0.916762	0.862456	0.819850	1.000000	0.951452	0.896506	0.938523	0.538490	0.690767	0.535552	0.835107
CAC 40	0.740441	0.867911	0.379804	0.384699	0.840650	0.769850	0.838252	0.130258	0.707588	0.936241	0.951616	0.830867	0.837630	0.915865	0.888613	0.937558	0.927040	0.919350	0.807150	0.844900	0.951452	1.000000	0.950645	0.939020	0.616444	0.621412	0.566260	0.804742
ESTX 50 PR.EUR	0.682687	0.711546	0.474652	0.464351	0.732157	0.735818	0.784281	0.226027	0.656835	0.858848	0.866980	0.665927	0.740002	0.793679	0.737684	0.844744	0.819500	0.854173	0.662099	0.817919	0.896506	0.950645	1.000000	0.935374	0.435410	0.623699	0.390499	0.640020
BEL 20	0.778283	0.767725	0.379616	0.499997	0.824814	0.850925	0.756709	0.156673	0.682131	0.900803	0.845549	0.718244	0.712703	0.837554	0.783063	0.874851	0.865611	0.839443	0.690204	0.843177	0.938523	0.939020	0.935374	1.000000	0.381365	0.761899	0.424306	0.682211
IBOVESPA	0.282710	0.783535	0.025887	-0.202773	0.533796	0.224667	0.627924	0.109271	0.506827	0.582278	0.721202	0.788127	0.795125	0.744325	0.770895	0.643134	0.640475	0.680719	0.776643	0.363324	0.538490	0.616444	0.435410	0.381365	1.000000	0.029527	0.790685	0.839547
IPC MEXICO	0.851612	0.471627	0.512257	0.756679	0.753600	0.866538	0.554397	-0.151050	0.615910	0.590715	0.531847	0.376573	0.355968	0.533736	0.495244	0.639807	0.644582	0.571499	0.346934	0.822144	0.690767	0.621412	0.623699	0.761899	0.029527	1.000000	0.259620	0.332306
S&P/CLX IPSA	0.425375	0.769528	0.237185	0.010240	0.597018	0.311173	0.750542	0.064019	0.694757	0.527461	0.576581	0.641332	0.698466	0.668409	0.690586	0.584672	0.611575	0.604146	0.642698	0.468545	0.535552	0.566260	0.390499	0.424306	0.790685	0.259620	1.000000	0.727716
MERVAL	0.547686	0.916633	-0.027157	0.075394	0.748854	0.549806	0.703757	0.135765	0.687437	0.874725	0.862587	0.969789	0.929105	0.936350	0.959419	0.879689	0.886647	0.841768	0.973648	0.538639	0.835107	0.804742	0.640020	0.682211	0.839547	0.332306	0.727716	1.000000

	SET_pred	VNI_pred	STI Index_pred	FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI_pred	Composite Index_pred	PSEi INDEX_pred	HANG SENG INDEX_pred	Shenzhen Component_pred	KOSPI Composite Index_pred	Nikkei 225_pred	ALL ORDINARIES_pred	S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS _pred	TSEC weighted index_pred	NIFTY 50_pred	Dow Jones Industrial Average_pred	NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)_pred	Russell 2000_pred	S&P/TSX Composite index_pred	NASDAQ Composite_pred	FTSE 100_pred	DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX_pred	CAC 40_pred	ESTX 50 PR.EUR_pred	BEL 20_pred	IBOVESPA_pred	IPC MEXICO_pred	S&P/CLX IPSA_pred	MERVAL_pred
Date
2018-02-08	-4.002932	0.201392	-13.810540	-3.174284	-37.071157	-26.991800	-41.481112	24.729155	6.746785	60.097357	2.558358	-3.468390	-51.790193	-50.368494	35.208103	24.796325	3.354092	32.775033	6.082373	-58.648645	-56.018354	-35.221950	-24.354424	-18.797839	-122.939468	-79.805195	-1.349900	-40.438537
2018-02-09	1.063423	0.293161	1.174065	0.110811	4.846914	-4.198004	11.989706	14.544453	-1.859715	-8.919021	-2.373201	0.918657	-1.712454	5.347156	-3.328601	-6.468447	-0.552250	-3.860766	-1.562024	13.679333	22.008342	10.309818	7.820713	5.572573	14.751276	14.954954	0.568118	14.759758
2018-02-10	-0.023452	0.050498	-0.527193	0.077956	-0.186441	1.840235	-3.479503	-3.587955	0.476187	5.893382	0.960279	1.651051	0.344577	-0.872074	8.347404	3.987609	0.534742	1.644255	2.401148	-4.303774	-4.050055	-2.831836	-2.486800	-1.385868	1.899932	-0.800021	0.258119	9.817278
2018-02-11	0.503792	0.227911	0.260078	0.216818	1.951638	1.956095	3.650934	-1.048015	0.130143	3.372113	0.030176	1.942000	0.673824	2.646000	5.096284	1.595619	0.313139	1.213766	1.750150	2.034140	4.624246	1.479244	0.992863	1.145197	3.929970	8.126266	0.911673	12.155264
2018-02-12	0.394893	0.195984	0.147990	0.217498	1.461201	2.326365	3.008578	-1.421387	0.327153	4.843538	0.559791	1.988362	0.928553	1.890735	6.000640	2.326342	0.363745	1.459947	1.963984	0.267037	2.080558	0.206466	-0.076147	0.396822	5.108983	5.922510	0.829665	11.663110
...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...	...
2020-12-27	0.424630	0.205660	0.181597	0.221005	1.580764	2.269722	3.229183	-1.323809	0.286318	4.456116	0.422972	1.993419	0.920738	2.089135	5.813261	2.166175	0.353337	1.403250	1.923476	0.689529	2.644728	0.491901	0.170526	0.563130	5.002897	6.530742	0.858875	11.833621
2020-12-28	0.424630	0.205660	0.181597	0.221005	1.580764	2.269722	3.229183	-1.323809	0.286318	4.456116	0.422972	1.993419	0.920738	2.089135	5.813261	2.166175	0.353337	1.403250	1.923476	0.689529	2.644728	0.491901	0.170526	0.563130	5.002897	6.530742	0.858875	11.833621
2020-12-29	0.424630	0.205660	0.181597	0.221005	1.580764	2.269722	3.229183	-1.323809	0.286318	4.456116	0.422972	1.993419	0.920738	2.089135	5.813261	2.166175	0.353337	1.403250	1.923476	0.689529	2.644728	0.491901	0.170526	0.563130	5.002897	6.530742	0.858875	11.833621
2020-12-30	0.424630	0.205660	0.181597	0.221005	1.580764	2.269722	3.229183	-1.323809	0.286318	4.456116	0.422972	1.993419	0.920738	2.089135	5.813261	2.166175	0.353337	1.403250	1.923476	0.689529	2.644728	0.491901	0.170526	0.563130	5.002897	6.530742	0.858875	11.833621
2020-12-31	0.424630	0.205660	0.181597	0.221005	1.580764	2.269722	3.229183	-1.323809	0.286318	4.456116	0.422972	1.993419	0.920738	2.089135	5.813261	2.166175	0.353337	1.403250	1.923476	0.689529	2.644728	0.491901	0.170526	0.563130	5.002897	6.530742	0.858875	11.833621

	Date	SET_pred	SET	accuracy
0	2018-02-08	1445.35	1786.66	80.90%
1	2018-02-09	1446.41	1786.45	80.97%
2	2018-02-10	1446.39	1786.45	80.96%
3	2018-02-11	1446.89	1786.45	80.99%
4	2018-02-12	1447.29	1799.45	80.43%
...	...	...	...	...
1053	2020-12-27	1892.73	1486.31	127.34%
1054	2020-12-28	1893.15	1452.67	130.32%
1055	2020-12-29	1893.58	1461.95	129.52%
1056	2020-12-30	1894.00	1449.35	130.68%
1057	2020-12-31	1894.43	1449.35	130.71%

Data Gathering¶

Get stock value one by one¶

Get all stock price in Dataframe¶

Handle null value¶

Save raw data to csv¶

Building Model¶

Get data from CSV¶

Correlation Table¶

Time Series Analysis¶

Normal Test¶

Auto-correlation (ACF)¶

Partial Auto-correlation (PACF)¶

Stationary Check - Augmentated Dickey Fuller Test¶

Granger's Causality Test¶

VAR MODEL (Run All Markets)¶

Durbin Watson¶

	SET	VNI	STI Index	FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI	Composite Index	PSEi INDEX	HANG SENG INDEX	Shenzhen Component	KOSPI Composite Index	Nikkei 225	...	MOEX Russia Index	IBOVESPA	IPC MEXICO	S&P/CLX IPSA	MERVAL	TA-125	Top 40 USD Net TRI Index	Gold Jun 21	Crude Oil Jun 21	Bitcoin USD
Date
2010-01-04	732.28	517.05	2894.550049	1275.750000	2575.312988	3004.237549	21823.279297	13533.387695	1696.140015	10654.790039	...	NaN	70045.0	32758.529297	3620.699951	2384.489990	1089.339966	NaN	1117.699951	81.510002	NaN
2010-01-05	732.11	532.53	2920.280029	1288.239990	2605.175537	3027.681396	22279.580078	13517.228516	1690.619995	10681.830078	...	NaN	70240.0	32732.759766	3624.100098	2401.750000	1098.199951	NaN	1118.099976	81.769997	NaN
2010-01-06	735.73	534.46	2930.489990	1293.170044	2603.195557	3039.148438	22416.669922	13505.028320	1705.319946	10731.450195	...	NaN	70729.0	32830.160156	3639.959961	2362.459961	1098.310059	NaN	1135.900024	83.180000	NaN
2010-01-07	734.63	533.34	2913.250000	1291.420044	2586.794189	3076.988770	22269.449219	13235.332031	1683.449951	10681.660156	...	NaN	70451.0	33064.570312	3681.060059	2389.449951	1094.040039	NaN	1133.099976	82.660004	NaN
2010-01-08	738.96	520.90	2922.760010	1292.979980	2614.268311	3076.388916	22296.750000	13267.291992	1695.260010	10798.320312	...	NaN	70263.0	32892.039062	3726.500000	2352.760010	1094.040039	NaN	1138.199951	82.750000	NaN

	SET_x	VNI_x	STI Index_x	FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI_x	Composite Index_x	PSEi INDEX_x	HANG SENG INDEX_x	Shenzhen Component_x	KOSPI Composite Index_x	Nikkei 225_x	ALL ORDINARIES_x	S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS _x	TSEC weighted index_x	NIFTY 50_x	Dow Jones Industrial Average_x	NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)_x	Russell 2000_x	S&P/TSX Composite index_x	NASDAQ Composite_x	FTSE 100_x	DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX_x	CAC 40_x	ESTX 50 PR.EUR_x	BEL 20_x	IBOVESPA_x	IPC MEXICO_x	S&P/CLX IPSA_x	MERVAL_x
SET_y	1.0000	0.0672	0.0430	0.2607	0.0000	0.1740	0.0445	0.0132	0.0512	0.0095	0.1254	0.6449	0.0707	0.0009	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
VNI_y	0.0150	1.0000	0.0000	0.0058	0.0032	0.0077	0.0100	0.2470	0.0013	0.0406	0.0670	0.2193	0.0047	0.0005	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0001	0.0000
STI Index_y	0.0083	0.7242	1.0000	0.0089	0.0468	0.0499	0.0140	0.0051	0.0023	0.5758	0.0398	0.0958	0.0057	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI_y	0.0000	0.3190	0.0000	1.0000	0.0003	0.1457	0.0215	0.1946	0.0000	0.1822	0.0128	0.2640	0.0058	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Composite Index_y	0.0034	0.0686	0.0557	0.0845	1.0000	0.1558	0.0891	0.0077	0.2777	0.0006	0.0314	0.0664	0.1998	0.0002	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
PSEi INDEX_y	0.0000	0.1911	0.0000	0.0040	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.2415	0.0000	0.0162	0.0001	0.4321	0.0002	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
HANG SENG INDEX_y	0.0005	0.0048	0.0000	0.0089	0.1393	0.0892	1.0000	0.0017	0.2127	0.5333	0.0287	0.0836	0.0527	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Shenzhen Component_y	0.3770	0.0845	0.0451	0.0101	0.5663	0.1119	0.3367	1.0000	0.3185	0.2036	0.6065	0.4735	0.2691	0.1051	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0003	0.0000	0.2372
KOSPI Composite Index_y	0.0000	0.0245	0.0000	0.0349	0.0000	0.4697	0.0000	0.0557	1.0000	0.3504	0.0003	0.0651	0.0036	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Nikkei 225_y	0.0000	0.0024	0.0000	0.0627	0.0088	0.2989	0.0002	0.0025	0.0182	1.0000	0.0000	0.0333	0.0046	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
ALL ORDINARIES_y	0.0000	0.1972	0.0000	0.2493	0.0154	0.2303	0.0211	0.1591	0.2319	0.2518	1.0000	0.2524	0.3847	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
S&P/NZX 50 INDEX GROSS ( GROSS _y	0.0001	0.0463	0.0000	0.0308	0.0048	0.0118	0.0000	0.0118	0.0006	0.0100	0.0000	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
TSEC weighted index_y	0.0000	0.0364	0.0000	0.1194	0.0024	0.0785	0.0000	0.0275	0.0077	0.2790	0.0024	0.1507	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
NIFTY 50_y	0.0438	0.0283	0.0718	0.0965	0.0021	0.3197	0.0563	0.0413	0.0153	0.8833	0.2450	0.2397	0.0151	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
Dow Jones Industrial Average_y	0.7099	0.3629	0.0966	0.1356	0.0205	0.2353	0.0302	0.0441	0.0912	0.2334	0.0204	0.1221	0.0478	0.6449	1.0000	0.0083	0.0479	0.0507	0.3534	0.0306	0.0212	0.0377	0.0598	0.0274	0.2573	0.2242	0.1664	0.0885
NYSE COMPOSITE (DJ)_y	0.2718	0.4656	0.0222	0.2359	0.0017	0.1816	0.1090	0.0181	0.1339	0.3643	0.0888	0.2475	0.0721	0.2786	0.0538	1.0000	0.4764	0.1077	0.6105	0.0126	0.0238	0.0170	0.0240	0.0214	0.1427	0.2479	0.3839	0.2837
Russell 2000_y	0.2754	0.2855	0.4902	0.2275	0.0505	0.3426	0.0787	0.1583	0.3041	0.1600	0.0585	0.1610	0.0193	0.4117	0.1958	0.4076	1.0000	0.1069	0.4221	0.0515	0.0434	0.0372	0.0814	0.0540	0.1217	0.2478	0.1825	0.2838
S&P/TSX Composite index_y	0.0298	0.4433	0.0038	0.1030	0.0046	0.1420	0.0142	0.0910	0.0427	0.0974	0.1666	0.0630	0.0225	0.2830	0.0568	0.0245	0.2189	1.0000	0.0110	0.0841	0.0947	0.0439	0.1197	0.0821	0.2372	0.0380	0.1278	0.2968
NASDAQ Composite_y	0.8093	0.3432	0.1409	0.6317	0.0726	0.4721	0.0951	0.0810	0.1083	0.0180	0.0486	0.0688	0.0046	0.5478	0.4203	0.4600	0.1937	0.0558	1.0000	0.0114	0.0139	0.0064	0.0269	0.0083	0.2689	0.0684	0.4514	0.2632
FTSE 100_y	0.0225	0.6346	0.0136	0.0630	0.0942	0.1041	0.0578	0.0434	0.1325	0.0606	0.1749	0.0119	0.0093	0.2118	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	1.0000	0.5341	0.6187	0.4155	0.3573	0.0000	0.0000	0.0003	0.0003
DAX PERFORMANCE-INDEX_y	0.2974	0.4331	0.1603	0.3208	0.1802	0.2472	0.0220	0.0447	0.1132	0.3863	0.1478	0.0518	0.0124	0.3331	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.2410	1.0000	0.4126	0.4412	0.1430	0.0000	0.0005	0.0232	0.0071
CAC 40_y	0.0670	0.5370	0.0739	0.2174	0.1999	0.2700	0.1277	0.0545	0.2186	0.3301	0.0536	0.0115	0.0032	0.1627	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1402	0.3786	1.0000	0.5926	0.1567	0.0000	0.0000	0.0196	0.0142
ESTX 50 PR.EUR_y	0.1522	0.4569	0.1586	0.1414	0.1961	0.1665	0.1517	0.0213	0.3981	0.3872	0.0757	0.0143	0.0029	0.2805	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.1036	0.0600	0.0005	1.0000	0.1153	0.0000	0.0000	0.0189	0.0312
BEL 20_y	0.0163	0.5246	0.0272	0.0696	0.1710	0.2446	0.0316	0.0162	0.0134	0.1413	0.0695	0.0122	0.0025	0.0739	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.5759	0.5418	0.1336	0.4203	1.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0173	0.0147
IBOVESPA_y	0.0434	0.2171	0.2019	0.3376	0.0209	0.0319	0.2041	0.4011	0.3098	0.5562	0.0467	0.0452	0.0129	0.0044	0.2151	0.1140	0.0775	0.0002	0.0565	0.0465	0.0222	0.0264	0.0506	0.0977	1.0000	0.0179	0.0994	0.1666
IPC MEXICO_y	0.4749	0.1628	0.0798	0.3071	0.0133	0.1117	0.1065	0.1641	0.0574	0.1419	0.5561	0.0537	0.0612	0.2534	0.4378	0.1386	0.4070	0.0299	0.2125	0.4098	0.4190	0.4682	0.6096	0.3296	0.1406	1.0000	0.2260	0.0071
S&P/CLX IPSA_y	0.5098	0.1061	0.0470	0.1023	0.0002	0.0016	0.3405	0.0033	0.1388	0.0155	0.1418	0.3312	0.2693	0.2872	0.0003	0.0000	0.0003	0.0000	0.0002	0.3798	0.2691	0.5367	0.2183	0.5370	0.0000	0.0003	1.0000	0.0003
MERVAL_y	0.3500	0.3700	0.6097	0.4966	0.7941	0.1886	0.1506	0.5356	0.4301	0.2797	0.2482	0.2658	0.1463	0.6070	0.1503	0.1866	0.0887	0.3627	0.0227	0.3413	0.1086	0.5556	0.4324	0.4359	0.4912	0.1706	0.5080	1.0000